No, I'm not posting here because I think it's time to fire Ault. If we play like this against San Jose State, we'll talk.
It's easy to forget this, but, when Oregon isn't playing NFL-level defenses fielded by SEC teams, this is precisely what they do to people. Even against LSU, they managed to score 27 points while committing four turnovers. Most teams would be fortunate to score at all under such conditions. Last year, they did what they are doing to us against just about every team on their schedule until Auburn proved that, yes, it's possible to stop Oregon's high octane offense if you field the Carolina Panther's starting defense against it.
The good news, at least from where I'm sitting, is our offense is moving the ball fairly effectively against a solid defense. Granted, there have been a few miscues, and it's clear our offensive line isn't as solid as it was last year, but Lantrip looks comfortable back there and our running game is holding its own. When we're not playing national championship contenders, it will be much more obvious that we've only lost half a step there since last year. Our defense, meanwhile... well, it's not really fair to knock them. Our secondary is about as mediocre as always, but our linebackers are doing a good job of pressuring the quarterback. Sadly, Oregon's offense is explicitly built to punish teams when they pressure the quarterback, or when they attempt to focus on coverage, or when they attempt to stop the run, or when they step on to the field at all.
The simple truth is Oregon is really, really good, and has a lot more talent on both sides of the ball than we do. They also have Nike funneling money into the program, while we have troubles filling a 30,000 seat stadium. As tempting as it might be to pin this one on Ault, it would be like blaming Belgium for not putting up a better fight against Germany in World War 2. We lost this game the instant it showed up on our schedule - the only question was whether or not Oregon would forget that. If they beat LSU, we might have had a chance. They didn't, so we didn't.
Don't feel bad - Oregon will make a lot of schools look silly. We're just their first victim of the year; we'll be in good company soon enough.
Saturday, September 10, 2011
Tuesday, September 6, 2011
FCA 2011
Suddenly it's September, and time to look forward to another season of Wolf Pack football.
This blog was created in 2007 by a couple of guys who were more than a little disappointed in the team's advancement in over the previous 3.5 seasons and felt more than a little crushed by it. More than anything it was an emotional response to a rather lackluster product; a product of men with the talents and skills to do better...much, much better. And in posts dating back nearly another four seasons we have produced ample testament backing up our stance of disappointment.
Disappointment is the recurring theme here.
But through all of that we never really wanted to see Ault terminated. He was and still is an institution in Reno and Nevada at large and should be able to maintain the dignity that goes along with that. Nevada football = Chris Ault in no uncertain terms, and none of us wanted to see him stripped of that dignity by a lackluster 3rd tenure. This, in a very simplified nutshell, became our raison d'être.
In 2010 a string of magical moments, too numerous to recount here, captivated the Wolf Pack Nation. There were ample times to doubt, but through it all Ault and the 2010 staff & athletes gave us all something truly special and for that all Wolf Pack fans are perpetually indebted.
Therefore, in honor of their collective efforts we will put a hiatus on our blogging efforts here.
Now that's not to say that we may not feel the need to pick back up even before the end of the season...time will tell for that one. We do love blogging about our beloved Wolf Pack, whether statistical analysis, post-game musings, or just plain randomness, so it may be a rather tough sabbatical. But as of September 5th, 2011 it feels like the right thing to do.
This blog was created in 2007 by a couple of guys who were more than a little disappointed in the team's advancement in over the previous 3.5 seasons and felt more than a little crushed by it. More than anything it was an emotional response to a rather lackluster product; a product of men with the talents and skills to do better...much, much better. And in posts dating back nearly another four seasons we have produced ample testament backing up our stance of disappointment.
Disappointment is the recurring theme here.
But through all of that we never really wanted to see Ault terminated. He was and still is an institution in Reno and Nevada at large and should be able to maintain the dignity that goes along with that. Nevada football = Chris Ault in no uncertain terms, and none of us wanted to see him stripped of that dignity by a lackluster 3rd tenure. This, in a very simplified nutshell, became our raison d'être.
In 2010 a string of magical moments, too numerous to recount here, captivated the Wolf Pack Nation. There were ample times to doubt, but through it all Ault and the 2010 staff & athletes gave us all something truly special and for that all Wolf Pack fans are perpetually indebted.
Therefore, in honor of their collective efforts we will put a hiatus on our blogging efforts here.
Now that's not to say that we may not feel the need to pick back up even before the end of the season...time will tell for that one. We do love blogging about our beloved Wolf Pack, whether statistical analysis, post-game musings, or just plain randomness, so it may be a rather tough sabbatical. But as of September 5th, 2011 it feels like the right thing to do.
Friday, January 14, 2011
Reflections on 2010
Winning cures all ills.
We just completed the best season in modern Nevada football history. We won the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, secured a share of the WAC championship, beat Boise State in a stunning thriller of a game, and finished the year 13-1. We finished the year in the top 15 for the first time... well, probably ever, though I wouldn't be terribly surprised if somebody found us ranked up there in the '40s or something. Long story short, if you're a Nevada Wolf Pack fan, there's nothing to complain about.
So I won't.
Instead, let's dish out some random thoughts to end the 2010 season and get ourselves ready for the 2011 season...
WAC Bowl Games
Our predictions for the WAC bowl season weren't exactly flawless. The Las Vegas Bowl was neither an amazing game, nor did a vengeful god make its appearance and smite both teams from the field. Instead, Boise State handily beat a mediocre Utah team that looked a lot better on paper than it did on the field. Our prediction of the uDrive Humanitarian Bowl was dead on; if Fresno State wanted anything to do with blue turf before, they certainly don't now. The Sheraton Hawaii Bowl was an overwhelming win... for Tulsa. Oh yes, and the main object of our affection coached the best Wolf Pack team in history through a successful (if sloppily played) bowl game. Don't worry, we were there.
If this is what it's like to be wrong, I don't want to be right.
Ault's Letter to the Community
He wrote it, I read it. You should too.
Post-Kaepernick Life
Chris Murray at the RGJ is continuing his fantastic work this season in covering all things Wolf Pack, this time with a look at our 2011 lineup. It's an interesting read - our offense might look very different from the rush-heavy offense we've come to enjoy over the past couple of seasons. Thank goodness we start against New Mexico to get some of the early bugs out.
Thoughts on 2011
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. The bad news is that our schedule is going to be much tougher - better teams than us have played in Autzen Stadium and left thoroughly embarrassed and dispirited, and I don't expect us to do much better. The good news? With Boise State leaving for the Mountain West a year before us, we have as good of a shot as we're ever going to get for an undivided conference championship. Hawaii will remain spunky, of course, but the rest of the conference is looking pretty mediocre, Fresno State included. Question is, will we have the talent and the schemes to pull it off?
Past that, attendance will be the big question mark for us. We've noted several times (as has the RGJ, frankly) that community, financial, and facility support for our football team is at or near the bottom of the Mountain West. The numbers don't lie - if we don't find some way to improve, we're going to be at the bottom of the conference far more often than not, regardless of who's coaching the program. We're not competing against Idaho or San Jose State anymore; UNLV might be the only team in the MWC with consistently worse attendance than we do. The good news is we've proven that, if there's a quality product on the field, Reno will show up to support the Wolf Pack. However, there has to be quality on both sides of the field - Reno simply isn't a city that's willing to watch a top-25 team beat the tar out of a doormat, even if that top-25 team is us.
Case in point, here were our attendance figures:
September 2 (Eastern Washington): 16313
September 11 (Colorado State): 18098
September 17 (California): 28809
October 9 (San Jose State): 20636
October 30 (Utah State): 11558
November 20 (New Mexico State): 10906
November 26 (Boise State): 30712
Realistically, assuming the Wolf Pack doesn't flop early against its schedule, we should be in better shape attendance-wise in 2011 than we were in 2010. I don't anticipate us selling out Mackay for every home game (it'd be cool if we did, mind you), but I also anticipate us averaging better than 19,576. The good news is our 2011 home schedule will be much more interesting than SJSU, Utah State, and NMSU - in fact, our most challenging conference games (Hawaii, Fresno State, and Louisiana Tech) are all at home. In short, our home conference schedule is chock full of meaningful games, which should boost attendance somewhat. Throw in UNLV and we might average over 22,000.
I can't wait!
Anyway, that's it for now. Lest anyone think we've completely swallowed the trademarked powdered fruit drink, I will note that we were still rather turnover-prone in the bowl game, but I'm willing to give Ault and his crew the benefit of the doubt and assume it was just post-finals rust.
For once, they've earned it.
Here's to next year!
We just completed the best season in modern Nevada football history. We won the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, secured a share of the WAC championship, beat Boise State in a stunning thriller of a game, and finished the year 13-1. We finished the year in the top 15 for the first time... well, probably ever, though I wouldn't be terribly surprised if somebody found us ranked up there in the '40s or something. Long story short, if you're a Nevada Wolf Pack fan, there's nothing to complain about.
So I won't.
Instead, let's dish out some random thoughts to end the 2010 season and get ourselves ready for the 2011 season...
WAC Bowl Games
Our predictions for the WAC bowl season weren't exactly flawless. The Las Vegas Bowl was neither an amazing game, nor did a vengeful god make its appearance and smite both teams from the field. Instead, Boise State handily beat a mediocre Utah team that looked a lot better on paper than it did on the field. Our prediction of the uDrive Humanitarian Bowl was dead on; if Fresno State wanted anything to do with blue turf before, they certainly don't now. The Sheraton Hawaii Bowl was an overwhelming win... for Tulsa. Oh yes, and the main object of our affection coached the best Wolf Pack team in history through a successful (if sloppily played) bowl game. Don't worry, we were there.
If this is what it's like to be wrong, I don't want to be right.
Ault's Letter to the Community
He wrote it, I read it. You should too.
Post-Kaepernick Life
Chris Murray at the RGJ is continuing his fantastic work this season in covering all things Wolf Pack, this time with a look at our 2011 lineup. It's an interesting read - our offense might look very different from the rush-heavy offense we've come to enjoy over the past couple of seasons. Thank goodness we start against New Mexico to get some of the early bugs out.
Thoughts on 2011
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. The bad news is that our schedule is going to be much tougher - better teams than us have played in Autzen Stadium and left thoroughly embarrassed and dispirited, and I don't expect us to do much better. The good news? With Boise State leaving for the Mountain West a year before us, we have as good of a shot as we're ever going to get for an undivided conference championship. Hawaii will remain spunky, of course, but the rest of the conference is looking pretty mediocre, Fresno State included. Question is, will we have the talent and the schemes to pull it off?
Past that, attendance will be the big question mark for us. We've noted several times (as has the RGJ, frankly) that community, financial, and facility support for our football team is at or near the bottom of the Mountain West. The numbers don't lie - if we don't find some way to improve, we're going to be at the bottom of the conference far more often than not, regardless of who's coaching the program. We're not competing against Idaho or San Jose State anymore; UNLV might be the only team in the MWC with consistently worse attendance than we do. The good news is we've proven that, if there's a quality product on the field, Reno will show up to support the Wolf Pack. However, there has to be quality on both sides of the field - Reno simply isn't a city that's willing to watch a top-25 team beat the tar out of a doormat, even if that top-25 team is us.
Case in point, here were our attendance figures:
September 2 (Eastern Washington): 16313
September 11 (Colorado State): 18098
September 17 (California): 28809
October 9 (San Jose State): 20636
October 30 (Utah State): 11558
November 20 (New Mexico State): 10906
November 26 (Boise State): 30712
Realistically, assuming the Wolf Pack doesn't flop early against its schedule, we should be in better shape attendance-wise in 2011 than we were in 2010. I don't anticipate us selling out Mackay for every home game (it'd be cool if we did, mind you), but I also anticipate us averaging better than 19,576. The good news is our 2011 home schedule will be much more interesting than SJSU, Utah State, and NMSU - in fact, our most challenging conference games (Hawaii, Fresno State, and Louisiana Tech) are all at home. In short, our home conference schedule is chock full of meaningful games, which should boost attendance somewhat. Throw in UNLV and we might average over 22,000.
I can't wait!
Anyway, that's it for now. Lest anyone think we've completely swallowed the trademarked powdered fruit drink, I will note that we were still rather turnover-prone in the bowl game, but I'm willing to give Ault and his crew the benefit of the doubt and assume it was just post-finals rust.
For once, they've earned it.
Here's to next year!
Wednesday, January 5, 2011
Nevada vs. Boston College: Statistics at a Glance
It's time for the final countdown, and with it some long overdue comparative stats.
Point spread as of 01/04/2011: Nevada minus 7.5; O/U 55.
Rushing Offense
Nevada: 3rd (323.31 YPG)
Also leads the nation in rushing TDs (52).
Boston College: 88th (133.25 YPG)
Not even close in rushing TDs (9).
Passing Offense
Nevada: 53rd (229.62 YPG)
A respectable 21 airborne touchdowns.
Boston College: 94th (175.33 YPG)
A...somewhat less spectacular 13, 5 fewer than Nevada Southern.
Total Offense
Nevada: 2nd (535.54 YPG)
Also second nationally with 6,962 total yards; 75 TDs ranks 3rd nationally.
Hawai'i ranks first in total yards with 7,009 - & they've already played their bowl game.
Boston College: 106th (308.58 YPG)
Compare with 3,703 total yards and 24 TDs.
Scoring Offense
Nevada: 5th (42.62 PPG)
Also tied for 2nd with TCU in TDs scored (70).
Boston College: 109th (18.92 PPG)
Just edging out Nevada Southern.
Rushing Defense
Boston College: 1st (962 for 80.17 YPG)
This is the ACC we're talking about.
Nevada: 23rd (1,620 for 124.62 YPG)
The next stat will mellow that out a bit.
Pass Defense
Boston College: 81st (229.83 YPG)
Meh.
Nevada: 108th (252.69 YPG)
Somewhat shockingly, I still say this is less "meh" watching the team down the stretch.
Total Defense
Boston College: 13th (3,720 for 310.00 YPG)
And Boise State is 3rd, so?
Nevada: 66th (4,905 for 377.31 YPG)
Bend, but don't break...bend, but don't break...bend, but don't break...
Scoring Defense
Boston College: 19th (19.50 PPG)
More respectable than their offensive categories by a long shot.
Nevada: 35th (22.08 PPG)
Tied with Georga and SDSU; not bad company, I'd say.
Penalties
Nevada: 29th (Penalties: 67 Yards: 638 PPG: 5.15 YPG: 49.08)
Dear OL: Please keep the false starts to a minimum. Thanks in advance.
BC: T 46th (Penalties: 68 Yards: 610 PPG: 5.67 YPG: 50.83)
There are so many ties on this list this category is almost a draw.
Punt Returns
Nevada: 59th (8.19 YPR)
Meh.
Boston College: 104th (4.64 YPR)
It does beat out Miami (FL) and Tennessee...then again, it beats out Miami and Tenn.
Kickoff Returns
Boston College: 120th (17.59 YPR)
Dead...frickin'...last. I knew we'd find one sooner or later.
Nevada: 38th (22.67 YPR)
Mike Ball rules. And, yes, I'd be saying this regardless.
Punt Returns Against
Boston College: 5th (90 yards, 3.75 YPR)
Whatever, the Pack is fair catching anyway...probably
Nevada: 57th (102 yards, 8.50 YPR)
Kickoff Returns Against
Boston College: 20th (916 yards, 19.91 YPR)
Not included: 4 touchbacks.
Nevada: 113th (1929 yards, 26.07 YPR)
Not included: 16 touchbacks.
Turnover Margin
Boston College: T 24th (+0.58)
It's an overrated statistic anyway.
Nevada: 30th (+0.46)
Not bad considering how the year started.
TOP
Nevada: 8th (32:38)
Higher than 112 other FBS teams.
Boston College: 74th (29:16)
Lower than 73 other FBS teams.
Point spread as of 01/04/2011: Nevada minus 7.5; O/U 55.
Rushing Offense
Nevada: 3rd (323.31 YPG)
Also leads the nation in rushing TDs (52).
Boston College: 88th (133.25 YPG)
Not even close in rushing TDs (9).
Passing Offense
Nevada: 53rd (229.62 YPG)
A respectable 21 airborne touchdowns.
Boston College: 94th (175.33 YPG)
A...somewhat less spectacular 13, 5 fewer than Nevada Southern.
Total Offense
Nevada: 2nd (535.54 YPG)
Also second nationally with 6,962 total yards; 75 TDs ranks 3rd nationally.
Hawai'i ranks first in total yards with 7,009 - & they've already played their bowl game.
Boston College: 106th (308.58 YPG)
Compare with 3,703 total yards and 24 TDs.
Scoring Offense
Nevada: 5th (42.62 PPG)
Also tied for 2nd with TCU in TDs scored (70).
Boston College: 109th (18.92 PPG)
Just edging out Nevada Southern.
Rushing Defense
Boston College: 1st (962 for 80.17 YPG)
This is the ACC we're talking about.
Nevada: 23rd (1,620 for 124.62 YPG)
The next stat will mellow that out a bit.
Pass Defense
Boston College: 81st (229.83 YPG)
Meh.
Nevada: 108th (252.69 YPG)
Somewhat shockingly, I still say this is less "meh" watching the team down the stretch.
Total Defense
Boston College: 13th (3,720 for 310.00 YPG)
And Boise State is 3rd, so?
Nevada: 66th (4,905 for 377.31 YPG)
Bend, but don't break...bend, but don't break...bend, but don't break...
Scoring Defense
Boston College: 19th (19.50 PPG)
More respectable than their offensive categories by a long shot.
Nevada: 35th (22.08 PPG)
Tied with Georga and SDSU; not bad company, I'd say.
Penalties
Nevada: 29th (Penalties: 67 Yards: 638 PPG: 5.15 YPG: 49.08)
Dear OL: Please keep the false starts to a minimum. Thanks in advance.
BC: T 46th (Penalties: 68 Yards: 610 PPG: 5.67 YPG: 50.83)
There are so many ties on this list this category is almost a draw.
Punt Returns
Nevada: 59th (8.19 YPR)
Meh.
Boston College: 104th (4.64 YPR)
It does beat out Miami (FL) and Tennessee...then again, it beats out Miami and Tenn.
Kickoff Returns
Boston College: 120th (17.59 YPR)
Dead...frickin'...last. I knew we'd find one sooner or later.
Nevada: 38th (22.67 YPR)
Mike Ball rules. And, yes, I'd be saying this regardless.
Punt Returns Against
Boston College: 5th (90 yards, 3.75 YPR)
Whatever, the Pack is fair catching anyway...probably
Nevada: 57th (102 yards, 8.50 YPR)
Kickoff Returns Against
Boston College: 20th (916 yards, 19.91 YPR)
Not included: 4 touchbacks.
Nevada: 113th (1929 yards, 26.07 YPR)
Not included: 16 touchbacks.
Turnover Margin
Boston College: T 24th (+0.58)
It's an overrated statistic anyway.
Nevada: 30th (+0.46)
Not bad considering how the year started.
TOP
Nevada: 8th (32:38)
Higher than 112 other FBS teams.
Boston College: 74th (29:16)
Lower than 73 other FBS teams.
Nevada's Season Record
1.) W, at Nevada: 49 Eastern (FBS, 9-2): 24
2.) W, at Nevada: 51 Colorado State (3-9): 6
3.) W, at Nevada: 52 California (5-7): 31
4.) W, Nevada: 27 at BYU (6-6): 13
5.) W, Nevada: 44 at Nevada Southern (2-10): 26
6.) W, at Nevada: 35 San Jose State (1-11): 13
7.) L, at Hawai'i (9-3): 27 Nevada: 21
8.) Bye
9.) W, at Nevada: 56 Utah State (4-7): 42
10.) W, Nevada: 63 at Idaho (5-7): 17
11.) W, Nevada: 35 at Fresno State (7-4): 34
12.) W, at Nevada: 52 New Mexico State (2-10): 6
13.) W, at Nevada: 34 Boise State (10-1): 31
14.) W, Nevada: 35 at La Tech (5-7): 17
Boston College's Season Record
1.) W, at BC: 38 Weber State (FCS, 6-5): 20
2.) W, at BC: 26 Kent State (5-7): 13
3.) Bye
4.) L, Virginia Tech (11-3): 19 at BC: 0
5.) L, Notre Dame (8-5): 31 at BC: 13
6.) L, at North Carolina State (9-4): 44 BC: 17
7.) L, at Florida State (10-4): 24 BC: 19
8.) L, Maryland (9-4): 24 at BC: 21
9.) W, at BC: 16 Clemson (6-7): 10
10.) W, BC: 23 at Wake Forrest (3-9): 13
11.) W, BC: 21 at Duke (3-9): 16
12.) W, at BC: 17 Virginia (4-8): 13
13.) W, BC: 16 at Syracuse (8-5): 7
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