So long, BYU

It's official - BYU is heading to the West Coast Conference (Deseret News):

PROVO — Brigham Young University has announced today it is going independent in football and have its other sports play in the West Coast Conference.

The school said its resignation from the Mountain West Conference will be effective June 30, 2011.

The eight members (Gonzaga, Loyola Marymount, Pepperdine, Portland, Saint Mary's, San Diego, San Francisco and Santa Clara) of the WCC have at least one thing in common with BYU — all are private, religiously affiliated institutions. The WCC schools reside in the Southern and Northern California, Oregon and Washington markets.

BYU will continue to compete in the NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision, beginning as an independent in fall 2011.

There are several ramifications for us.

1. The MWC just lost the last connection to Salt Lake City, which, as we discussed previously, was the only market keeping the MWC's TV deal worthwhile. The MWC might try to add Utah State to counteract that, but it won't be anywhere near enough. Of course, with BYU gone, the MWC will be sitting at ten teams, which will be far better for scheduling than an eleven team format. Don't be too terribly surprised if the MWC just lets "The Mtn." fold or lets it turn into a secondary media outlet for MWC games the way the WAC's new channel is situated.
2. There are some ambiguities in the hastily written $5 million "buyout" agreement - one of them is whether or not the buyout clause was contingent on BYU joining the WAC. The WAC's case against Nevada probably wasn't very strong to begin with since we never signed it; now that BYU isn't going to the WAC, there's a chance that Fresno State might be off the hook, too. This also raises several issues about the WAC's continued viability - since the WAC might not be able to split $5-10 million amongst each other, will there be enough incentive to keep the Big West II alive, and if so, for how long?

One thing that I can almost guarantee you won't see is the Mountain West expanding to twelve teams and creating a championship game. During the Super-WAC days, Las Vegas used to host the WAC Championship Game with decidedly mixed results. Not only were ratings poor, so was attendance; realistically, most schools in our class just don't travel very well. Consequently, I see the MWC staying pat at ten teams and reworking the TV deal to allow a major player like ESPN to serve as the primary carrier far more easily than I see the MWC attempting to set up a conference game with limited regional viability, especially since they've been there, done that once before.

Last thought - so much for the MWC's BCS aspirations. We're now back to ground zero on that front.

As for BYU... well, good luck. BYU just traded superior TV coverage through BYU-TV in exchange for national relevance. Without a conference affiliation to fall back on, there's absolutely no guarantee that they will ever see a BCS game again. Then again, with their own TV network following them around religiously, they might not need to.

Where we stand

Y'know... it's really hard to argue with the work that Dan Hinxman is doing as of late. It really is. He posted a nice, in-depth writeup on the state of Nevada football compared to the rest of the MWC today in his blog. Some of the highlights:

Apparently there was no desire in June, or at least the timing wasn’t right. Heck, in a time when the university’s athletic department is facing a shortfall of more than $800,000 for fiscal 2009-2010, there was even talk of dropping down a division.

Two months later, having not done any kind of feasibility study, it was the right time to pull the trigger.

Yes, the circumstances that led to the invitation — Brigham Young’s apparent defection to the WAC and, once it was sniffed out, the MWC’s counterattack — were unusual. Add to that the MWC’s apparent deadline — Nevada had no more than a couple of days to reach a decision — and you’ve got a pretty stressful situation.

But it would have been a lot less stressful had Nevada done its feasibility homework.

And now the football program that survives in the WAC with an underfunded support staff must move on to another conference where nearly every team has much more firepower, where nearly every team is, in terms of finances and support, a Boise State.

Coach Chris Ault and his staff don’t get enough credit for what they’ve built and how they’ve done it. Yes, the Pack has been barely better than .500 the last four seasons and hasn’t won any of its last four bowl games, but given the level of support it receives it is a wonder they even become bowl eligible.

Emphasis mine. Another key quote:

» The coaching staff is among the lowest-paid in the WAC and in the MWC. (This is not to say that if you threw money at the coaches the team would get better. It’s just another example of how the program is underfunded.)

Believe it or not, I actually agree with the bold paragraph. We've touched on Ault's performance given the resources he has at his disposal several times in the past. In the WAC, his abilities as recruiter made it possible for us to stay in the upper echelon of the conference despite his clear handicaps at on-the-field play calling and his tendency to hire "good ol' boys" in assistant coaching positions. That's not going to cut it in the MWC, however - not only are we going to have to contend with Boise State on a regular basis, it looks like we're going to be dealing with a resurgent BYU, an improving Air Force, and a Colorado State team that always plays us tough. If we're not careful, we're going to be square in the middle of the conference with no way out.

Let's discuss what we can do about some of our deficiencies. I found these attendance numbers for the original MWC teams from an MWC message board - though it's not my first choice for a primary source, the numbers I have been able to verify were identical to what I'm seeing in the thread, so I'm running with them. For the WAC, I found the WAC's numbers here, (capacities in parenthesis):

1. BYU - 64,236 (64,045 - not a typo; we used to have attendance figures in excess of "capacity" before the local Fire Marshall told us to cut it out, too)
2. TCU - 38,187 (46,000)
3. Air Force - 35,656 (52,480)
4. Fresno State - 33,578 (41,031)
5. Boise State - 32,782 (33,610)
6. New Mexico - 26,944 (42,000)
7. San Diego State - 24,464 (71,294 - they play out of Qualcomm Stadium)
8. Colorado State - 23,643 (30,000)
9. UNLV - 22,775 (36,800)
10. Wyoming - 19,494 (33,500)
11. Nevada - 17,500 (29,993)

That would be us at the bottom of average attendance in 2009. Lower than Wyoming. Lower than UNLV. Lower than everyone. If you're wondering why we didn't get an invite to the MWC until after BYU took the conference hostage, that's why right there. The scary part, however, is that, if you sort by capacities, you get this:

1. San Diego State (71,294)
2. BYU (64,045)
3. Air Force (52,480)
4. TCU (46,000)
5. New Mexico (42,000)
6. Fresno State (41,031)
7. UNLV (36,800)
8. Boise State (33,610)
9. Wyoming (33,500)
10. Colorado State (30,000)
11. Nevada (29,993)

We not only have the lowest average attendance of all MWC teams, we have the lowest stadium capacity in the MWC. This means that we not only have the smallest revenue stream of all of the teams in the conference, we have the smallest potential revenue stream in the conference.

The good news is, if we actually filled Mackay to capacity on a regular basis, we'd be square in the middle of the conference in average attendance (and revenue). As an added bonus, we're a bigger advertising market than Fort Collins or Laramie, which certainly works to our advantage revenue-wise. We just have to capitalize on it.

Speaking of which, according to Hinxman's article:

The athletic department is operating in the red, having reported that $800,000 deficit mentioned above. But if the answer to that is filling Mackay Stadium — and it is — something has to change in the philosophy of how football is presented.

“Some of (closing the budget deficit) comes through advertising and some of it comes through making sure the experience at games is an enjoyable one so fans have a good time and want to come back,” Michael Wixom, a member of the Board of Regents, told the RGJ in June. “That’s ultimately the main goal and the best way to close the budget deficit.”

An $800,000 deficit, at $16 a ticket for general admission, works out to 50,000 additional seat purchases, or increasing attendance by nearly 10,000 per game. In other words, break-even for our team in the WAC doesn't happen until we nearly fill Mackay to the rafters every single game. We're not even close to that, and that's with us being consistently bowl eligible.

Realistically, there are only three ways we're getting out of the MWC budget cellar:

1. Cut costs. Ault is in the bottom third of coaching salaries in the FBS (what we used to call "Division I-A"), but the coaches he repeatedly hired during his tenure as AD were paid significantly less. There might - just might - have been a reason for that. How'd those coaches work out for us?
2. Raise revenue. You can only raise revenue so high when only 17,500 people are showing up to games, on average. Advertisers aren't going to pay much for the honor of pushing Wolf Pack games and we're not going to get much revenue from the seats or the concessions.
3. Hope Utah State joins so we don't look so bad.

At this point, I'm betting on the third, but I'll do what I can about the "raise revenue" side of things. I'd like to see Ault go, but I'd like to see him replaced by something better - that's not happening if we're holding the bottom end of the MWC.

Just ask Wyoming.

Nevada vs. Eastern Washington: All-Time Football Data

It's hard to believe that the time has come to start posting the weekly statistics and previews...yet here we are.

It being the first game of the season I wish there could be a bit more fanfare for this one; unfortunately, while there is a bit of history here it is fairly scant.  There were also no common opponents last season, so there's little other comparison that can be made, save this: E. Wash played at Cal last season and quickly opened up a 7-0 lead over the Golden Bears...then gave up 59 unanswered points in return.

So...whew, here we go.  

Oh, and fun fact: E. Wash was the runner up for the 1967-1968 NAIA National Championship with a 21-28 loss at Fairmont State...they went 3-7 the following season.

Also: in the ten years since the turn of the century, the Eagles have made the FCS postseason three times, advancing to the quarterfinals twice.

Nevada (8-5, 7-1 WAC, 2nd) vs. Eastern Washington (8-4, 6-2 Big Sky, T-2nd).

Not ancient, not storied, and not a rivalry, Nevada leads the all-time series 6-1, all of which came under Chris Ault, for the record.

Scoring:
Nevada: 250 E. Wash: 162 (Nevada +88)
Nevada PPG: 35.714285714
E. Wash PPG: 23.142857142

The series:

November 3, 1984

at Nevada: 35 E. Wash: 21

October 12, 1985

at Nevada: 31 E. Wash: 25

(E. Wash would lose in the D-1AA quarterfinals at N. Iowa 14-17)

October 25, 1986

at Nevada: 56 E. Wash: 22

September 12, 1987

Nevada: 40 at E. Wash: 26

November 12, 1988

at Nevada: 30 E. Wash: 12

September 9, 1989

at E. Wash: 33 Nevada: 7

October 19, 1991

Nevada: 51 at E. Wash: 14

(Statement made.)

Let the tail-gating begin in earnest.

All quiet on the Wasatch Front

It remains quiet so far from BYU, which has led to a certain amount of feverish speculation on the part of the local media over there. Ultimately, nobody really knows what BYU is going to do - perhaps not even BYU. Will it join the WCC with Gonzaga and St. Mary's? Will it prop up the remainder of the WAC? Will it stay in the MWC for one more year? Will it get a better TV deal and stay in the MWC for more than a year? Will it bring Utah State over as a twelfth team if it stays, or will it make the MWC twist in the wind with eleven schools? Or - and this is my personal favorite in the "feverish speculation" sweepstakes - will BYU grab a few schools from the MWC and the WAC and build yet another mid-major conference, leaving everyone else to twist in the wind?

Don't count that last one out. They've done it before.

Meanwhile, information is beginning to come out on how we reached this point in the first place. As several sources (including the RGJ) have reported, the Salt Lake Tribune recently received via an open records request a series of e-mails between Utah State and several other parties that sketches out nicely how all of this went down. The Idaho Statesman, meanwhile, dug into them a little further to isolate Boise State's role in this - apparently, Boise State's President stepped up to invite Nevada, Fresno State, and possibly even Utah State into the Mountain West. Meanwhile, Karl Benson attempted to talk UNLV into joining the WAC, which led to this e-mail (Salt Lake Tribune):

Scott,

Thought I would give you an update. Shortly after you and I spoke this morning, Nevada and Fresno were issued an invite to the MWC. Our President met with our chancellor and we are giving this opportunity serious thought. It would mean that Nevada and UNLV would finally be in the same conference.
We were hopeful that when Karl met with UNLV, they would consider joining the WAC. They were not interested.
As you know, our board has a resolution that was put in place a few years ago that states that both state schools would work towards a common conference. So much has happened in the past 6 hours -- I wanted you to know what has been going on as I told you that I would keep you posted.

Cary S. Groth
Director of Athletics
University of Nevada

What this means is that, as soon as the MWC issued the invite, we were practically duty-bound to accept it - our loyalty to our state will always be greater than our loyalty to an athletic conference. That's just a given. Of course, one of the ramifications of this is that, if UNLV accepted the WAC invite, the WAC would've ended up stronger than ever and the MWC would've lied in tatters.

So, if you're looking for someone to blame for the near-extinction of the WAC, blame the source of all evil - UNLV! It's easy, fun, and safe for the whole family!

Game-By-Game

Hey - Chris Murray did it, so why can't we?

Game 1: Eastern Washington vs. Nevada
This one shouldn't be close, but it probably will be. We tend to play poorly in our first game of the season; thankfully, we're playing Eastern Washington, so it won't matter. Expect things to be uncomfortably close in the first half, followed by our team actually waking up and playing some football in the second half. Score: Nevada 42, E Washington 14

Game 2: Colorado State vs. Nevada
Colorado State isn't very good and we're playing at home, so that should count for something. This game will give us a solid feel for how the rest of the season will go - will we be underachievers, or will we actually beat the teams we're supposed to beat? Keep in mind that Colorado State always plays us close. Score: Nevada 28, Colorado State 21

Game 3: Cal vs. Nevada
If you went to the Texas Tech game a couple of years ago, you'll have a pretty solid understanding of how this game will probably go. Expect a ton of early fireworks, little defense on our side, and a lot of cussing from the south end zone by the end of the third quarter. It'll be entertaining - until it isn't. Score: Cal 35, Nevada 21

Game 4: Nevada @ BYU
Not only do we rarely play BYU well, especially in Provo, but we'll be playing them a week after an emotionally draining game at home. Don't expect much. When we write our customary "Ault seriously needs to go after this travesty" article, be sure to point to this article. Score: BYU 42, Nevada 6

Game 5: Nevada @ UNLV
To quote Blazing Saddles, "We have to protect our phoney baloney jobs here, gentlemen! We must do something about this immediately! Immediately! Immediately! Harrumph! Harrumph! Harrumph!" Ault is admittedly fantastic at using games against UNLV to protect his job, and there doesn't appear to be any sign that this year will go down any differently. Score: Nevada 56, UNLV 21

Game 6: San Jose State vs. Nevada
San Jose State isn't very good and we'll be playing at home after a solid confidence boost against UNLV. This is where we try to set the tone for conference play. Score: Nevada 38, SJSU 17

Game 7: Nevada @ Hawaii
We never play well in Honolulu and Hawaii will probably be better than last year. Considering how we only beat them by 10 last year at home while they were on their third-string quarterback, don't be surprised if this seemingly winnable game runs away from us. Score: Hawaii 24, Nevada 14

Game 8: Utah State vs. Nevada
We have a bye week before this game, we're playing it at home, we'll probably be a little embarrassed about the Hawaii game, and did I mention that Utah State isn't very good? Yeah... Score: Nevada 61, Utah State 7

Game 9: Nevada @ Idaho
We're not going to lose this one, but it'll be much closer than people will be comfortable with. Idaho won't be sneaking up on anyone this year, so don't expect any miracles out of them; having said that, this game will be on the road and the Utah State game will probably convince our team that they're better than they really are. Score: Nevada 35, Idaho 31

Game 10: Nevada @ Fresno State
Fresno State's schedule is much more sane and reasonable this year than usual, which means they might actually be halfway healthy going into this game. This means there will be a pretty good chance that they might actually be in the hunt for the conference championship this year if Pat Hill stops sweating his contract and starts paying attention on the field again. We've played Fresno State exceptionally well over the past couple of years, even in Fresno, which actually worries me a bit. That said, Fresno follows us up with Boise, so, if we're really lucky, we might catch them looking ahead, especially if we stumble a little against Idaho beforehand. Score: Nevada 31, Fresno 28

Game 11: New Mexico State vs. Nevada
Now it's our turn to look ahead a little. Bear in mind that we absolutely throttled them last year and that was in Las Cruces; expect this year to be no different, especially at home. Score: Nevada 56, NMSU 10

Game 12: Boise State vs. Nevada
Ah... now, here's where things get interesting. We're playing them here, which is good. However, if we're not in the hunt for the conference championship going into this game, the crowd will be non-existent, especially with this game happening on Thanksgiving weekend. Meanwhile, Boise State has a realistic shot at the national championship if they can get past Virginia Tech and Oregon State. Assuming both teams are doing as well as they should be going into this game, expect both sides to bring their A game. Also expect Boise State's superior athleticism and their fans' willingness to travel to overcome any home field advantage we might have here. Score: Boise State 42, Nevada 35

Game 13: Nevada @ Louisiana Tech
If Louisiana Tech can figure out how to throw the ball by the time this game rolls around, we might be in trouble. Failing that, this won't be that interesting. Score: Nevada 38, Louisiana Tech 21

Record: 9-4 (8-4 vs. FBS schools, 2-1 out-of-conference)

Honestly, I'd love to see us make that jump to national prominence this year, and I think Kaep and our running game are going to be the best chances we have on that front. However, there are few signs that suggest our defense is improved enough over the past couple of years to pull that off, which means we're just not going to be able to get over the hump against teams like Cal and Boise State. Fortunately, our team did improve last year and played everyone close, so... who knows?

It's Not Over Yet

With Nevada and Fresno State heading to the Mountain West and the WAC gutted like a freshly caught trout, BYU has suddenly become rather quiet about their plans. Interestingly, they've gone quiet in both directions - they're not announcing that they're going independent, but they're also not announcing that they're staying in the MWC, either. So, which way are the tea leaves looking?

To gain some insight into this, let's recap from last week's post:

BYU: A lot of people think BYU will stand pat and stay in the MWC now that the WAC is crumbling, but there's no guarantee of that. BYU's position with The Mtn and BYU-TV haven't changed, and BYU is one of the few schools whose fans would benefit from regular trips to Hawaii (BYU has a satellite campus near Honolulu) and Utah State. Plus, BYU absolutely loathes the fact that Utah was able to get out of the MWC while BYU never got an invite. Also don't forget that BYU wasn't planning on affiliating with the WAC for football and, between Hawaii and Utah State, it's not like the WAC is shooting blanks on the men's basketball front.

Put another way, going to the WAC would definitely hurt BYU nationally, but there's a good chance that it might still help BYU with its natural constituency. Given a choice between some national popularity and what would amount to a Mormon athletic fan service on their own channel, don't be surprised if BYU goes against the grain on this one.

This brings me to an article from Saturday's Deseret News, New broadcast facility key to Y.'s TV dreams:

PROVO — It sits on a hill, its tall glass facade gleaming in the sunlight, a modern tower housing a state-of-the-art TV studio that rivals anything in the industry.

This 100,000-square-foot building, filled with enough soundproof walls to build another complete building, has a giant belly filled with complicated cables, wires, high-definition production wares and state-of-the art technology that feeds a modern TV studio.

Next to it is a sports studio. All of this can split off four BYU-TV broadcasts simultaneously and is rigged for digital media operations and Internet streaming. This tower of glass and mortar is hard-wired with video and audio HD capability direct to LaVell Edwards Stadium and the Marriott Center, reducing the need for one of those giant TV trucks.

And a truck? BYU owns the best HD production truck in the West.

This network, with its capabilities and instant access to DirecTV and Dish Network's basic platform and 200 cable companies in North America, is at the center of the national story that caught the attention of the college football world this past week.

Yet, few still have caught on.

And this isn't really a new story. It is a chapter in an ongoing saga.

Since the inception of the Mountain West Conference deal with Comcast and creation of the league's network, The mtn., in partnership with Versus and CBS C, BYU's administration has spoken frequently and loudly on how restrictive aspects of the deal were unacceptable.

Part of the complaint is freedom to retain some broadcast rights, while another part is replaying games on BYU's own systems. But nobody listened, until this week.

There is a huge difference between reaching 4 million households as opposed to an estimated 50 million in North America and another 60 million to 70 million in Spanish and Portuguese-speaking countries of South America and parts of Polynesia. That is what BYU's facilities can provide the school and its owner, The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, who'd love to couch sports with other programming.

The key detail to remember here is that, without the Salt Lake City market, there is no "The Mtn". We brought this up last week:

Look at the list of MWC markets, and consider the top three markets listed there. Dallas isn't a college sports town; even if they were, I suspect there are more University of Texas fans up there than there are fans for a small private school in nearby Fort Worth. Colorado State's position in Denver, meanwhile, is overshadowed by its significantly larger and more successful sibling in Boulder. San Diego is notoriously apathetic to sports in general and to college sports especially; of course, San Diego State hasn't gone out of its way to improve things. So, Salt Lake City is the largest TV market that the MWC serves where people actually care. In fact, if you work your way down the list, you'll quickly discover that Salt Lake City is the only TV market of appreciable size that consistently cares about MWC sports, which means Salt Lake City is the only market that doesn't just unwittingly subscribe to "The Mtn.", they actually watch it and, more importantly, advertise on it.

Utah's departure split that market in half.

Well, guess what? People in Utah know that. From the aforementioned Deseret News article:

The departure of Utah and possibly BYU would be a major blow to the MWC's network. Those two schools clearly have been the biggest audience draw, and when they play one another the rivalry sets records — the best numbers the league can produce. Larger population areas of San Diego, Las Vegas and Denver should pull big numbers for MWC network, but they just do not.

Numbers speak volumes.

The proposed MWC in 2013 has a current average attendance in football of just more than 28,000 per game in their respective stadiums. BYU draws just fewer than 65,000 on Saturdays. The actual TV differential draw may not be that dramatic, but it is a significant bump on Comcast's radar and they know it.

There is no evidence the Fresno, Calif., or Reno, Nev., markets would be any different than San Diego or Las Vegas — places where viewers, subscribers and commercial contracts have just not caught fire, although Fresno is in Comcast cable territory.

The past few years, The mtn. network has featured a lot of Utah-based advertising, like the travel interest to St. George and Mesquite. This year we'll see another Utah-based company start selling its office wares on the league network.

Where is Sea World? Where is Las Vegas and all its glimmer? Who is selling The mtn., anyway, and will we see that "To the Max" advertisement every break for another season?

Emphasis ours.

In short, "The Mtn." and the MWC need BYU far more than BYU needs either "The Mtn." or the MWC, and the WAC's semi-implosion hasn't changed that. That merely changed some of the options on the table for BYU. BYU still has its own channel, along with a far more successful distribution pattern than the MWC's channel. It has more than enough equipment to broadcast BYU sports. It's also the last tie to the only market "The Mtn." broadcasts to that actually generates any interest or profit, and no, bringing in Utah State won't fix that.

BYU has a little over a week to make its decision. Stay tuned.

So... What Just Happened?!

NOTE: This is a long post. You've been warned.

The RGJ, among several other sources, are reporting the Nevada and Fresno State are leaving the WAC for the Mountain West Conference. How did we get here? Now that the dust is starting to settle, let's see if we can piece everything together.

1. "The Mtn."

In 2006, the MWC and ESPN were in negotiations for another TV contract. ESPN was offering a contract similar to the one the WAC presently enjoys with ESPN, with high-profile MWC games broadcasted nationally on off-peak times, such as Wednesdays, Thursdays, Fridays, and Sundays. In exchange, the projected payout probably would have been higher than the $4 million per year that the WAC presently receives, but not by much.

The MWC in general - and BYU specifically - refused.

Due to BYU's prohibition against Sunday sporting activities of any sort, playing games on Sunday or playing games on days that would require a Sunday practice are forbidden (this, by the way, is a major reason why BYU will never end up in a major conference). Consequently, most of the flexibility in scheduling that ESPN was looking for was impossible, which would have lowered the resulting payout. On top of that, ESPN wasn't particularly interested in heavily promoting MWC men's basketball; this failed to impress most of the major players in the MWC, including Utah, BYU, and UNLV. Meanwhile, since ESPN was only interested in cherry-picking the top football games in the conference, schools like Wyoming, New Mexico and San Diego State would only gain a small paycheck from the deal with little additional exposure. Needless to say, ESPN's deal left a lot to be desired.

As undesirable as ESPN's deal was, something needed to replace it. Since nobody else was knocking on the door, the MWC decided to do something truly unprecedented - they started their own cable sports network. Now they could broadcast all the games they wanted whenever they wanted - this simplified scheduling considerably. They could give airtime to other MWC sports that ordinarily wouldn't merit much of it - women's volleyball, baseball, even college basketball. Best of all, they could keep all of the profit generated from their network. Of course, in order for this to work, people would not only have to be able to watch the network, they'd have to have a reason to. With help from Comcast and CBS College Sports Network, the MWC was able to distribute their sports network on most cable networks in MWC territory, along with DirectTV. In exchange, the MWC required all home games to be broadcast through this new network, even games that were traditionally broadcast by local TV providers.

The end result was a network that sacrificed national exposure in exchange for more money and increased local exposure in MWC markets - and MWC's media markets weren't particularly small. They included (population numbers from here):

Rank - Location - Population - Schools
5 - Dallas-Ft Worth, TX - 2,544,410 - TCU
16 - Denver, CO - 1,539,380 - Colorado State (technically in Ft. Collins, which is in Denver's media market)
28 - San Diego, CA - 1,073,390 - San Diego State
31 - Salt Lake City, UT - 944,640 - Utah, BYU
42 - Las Vegas, NV - 721,780 - UNLV
44 - Albuquerque-Santa Fe, NM - 694,040 - New Mexico
92 - Colorado Springs-Pueblo, CO - 334,710 - Air Force
197 - Cheyenne, WY-Scottsbluff, NE - 54,710 - Wyoming
Total Population: 7,907,060

To put this into perspective, let's compare to the WAC's media markets at the beginning of this year:
6 - San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, CA - 2,503,400 - San Jose State
31 - Salt Lake City, UT - 944,640 - Utah State
55 - Fresno-Visalia, CA - 579,180 - Fresno State
71 - Honolulu, HI - 433,240 - Hawaii
75 - Spokane, WA - 419,350 - Idaho (I'm not sure if Moscow is in Spokane's market, but this is as close as I could get.)
98 - El Paso, TX - 310,760 - New Mexico State (I'm not sure if Las Cruces is in El Paso's market or not, but it's the closest major city.)
108 - Reno, NV - 270,500 - Nevada
112 - Boise, ID - 262,800 - Boise State
138 - Monroe, LA-El Dorado, AR - 177,200 - Louisiana Tech (I'm not sure if Ruston is in Monroe's market or Shreveport's; technically, Ruston is closer to Monroe, so that's what I'm going with.)
Total Population: 5,901,070

Note that the WAC numbers are wildly optimistic since many of the WAC schools are in remote cities that are too small to be listed, such as Moscow and Ruston. Furthermore, I guarantee you there aren't nearly a million people in Utah that are excited about Utah State athletics, nor are there over two million people in the Bay Area that are transfixed by the athletic prowess of San Jose State.

(Of course, there aren't over two million people in Dallas-Fort Worth that religiously follow TCU sports, nor a million and a half in Denver nervously scanning Colorado State box scores, but I'm getting ahead of myself...)

For more information, check out this informative article on the MWC's TV situation in the Idaho Statesman.

2. Utah leaves the MWC for the Pac-10.

That Utah accepted the Pac-10 invite was not surprising. How that would affect the MWC, however, wasn't entirely obvious, and it wasn't just about what Utah's departure meant for the MWC's BCS probation. The bigger issue was that Utah's departure took half of Salt Lake City's TV market with them.

Why is that so important? Look at the list of MWC markets, and consider the top three markets listed there. Dallas isn't a college sports town; even if they were, I suspect there are more University of Texas fans up there than there are fans for a small private school in nearby Fort Worth. Colorado State's position in Denver, meanwhile, is overshadowed by its significantly larger and more successful sibling in Boulder. San Diego is notoriously apathetic to sports in general and to college sports especially; of course, San Diego State hasn't gone out of its way to improve things. So, Salt Lake City is the largest TV market that the MWC serves where people actually care. In fact, if you work your way down the list, you'll quickly discover that Salt Lake City is the only TV market of appreciable size that consistently cares about MWC sports, which means Salt Lake City is the only market that doesn't just unwittingly subscribe to "The Mtn.", they actually watch it and, more importantly, advertise on it.

Utah's departure split that market in half.

Suddenly, what was already a dicey TV strategy - cable distribution still hasn't been secured in Dallas-Fort Worth or in San Diego, and it took a couple of years before DirecTV distributed it as part of their sports tier - became completely untenable. Of course, for most of the schools in the MWC, it didn't matter how untenable "The Mtn." was - there weren't any other options.

For most, but not all...

3. BYU prepares its exit strategy.

Unlike the rest of the MWC, BYU has its own television station (BYU-TV). Unlike "The Mtn.", which is currently only available to roughly eight million subscribers in a fairly compact geographical region, BYU-TV is available to forty million subscribers across the country. Naturally, BYU would love nothing more than to be able to broadcast their games on BYU-TV and enjoy the increased exposure available. Failing that, BYU has never been particularly happy about "The Mtn." or its lackluster distribution; at one point, BYU and Utah hired an attorney to "explore possible alternatives". Consequently, finding a way to get back on to national television - any way at all, really - was a priority.

The WAC was more than happy to oblige.

Boise State's departure from the WAC wounded the conference, but it didn't kill it. Boise's media market isn't particularly large, even by WAC standards (Fresno, Honolulu and Reno serve the same role for the WAC that Salt Lake City served for the MWC), but losing the only nationally renown football program in the conference didn't make upcoming negotiations with ESPN any easier. BYU was more than happy to capitalize on the WAC's condition - in exchange for replacing Boise State as the nationally renown flagship of the conference, BYU would get to piggy-back on the WAC's more widely distributed TV package through ESPN. Provided BYU became an independent, the WAC would even look the other way while BYU leveraged their investment in BYU-TV into a profitable BYU-centered sports network. It looked like a win-win for everyone, and all BYU asked in return was a guarantee that the WAC would still be around when BYU pulled the trigger. That guarantee was made in the form of a $5 million buyout that all WAC schools were obligated to pay if they left this year.

It wasn't enough.

4. The Prisoner's Dilemma

In the post-Boise State WAC, there were only three schools that mattered - Fresno State, Nevada, and Hawaii. They commanded the three largest markets in the WAC that actually cared about them (sorry, San Jose State and Utah State) and they were the only three teams left that were consistently decent in football and men's basketball. Of those three, Hawaii was never going to leave - no other conference is interested in the inherent scheduling difficulties or travel expenses that regular trips to Hawaii bring on. This left Nevada and Fresno State in a classic prisoner's dilemma. If they both stayed in the WAC, they had a decent chance of making the conference work for them, especially since BYU wouldn't be contending for a conference championship. If either of them left, however, not only would BYU reconsider its position, the remaining school would have to contend with maintaining national relevance while playing a conference that would only be slightly tougher (and slightly more interesting) than the Sun Belt.

The MWC called both of the "prisoners" in. As so often happens in a prisoner's dilemma situation, both prisoners caved. They didn't really have a choice.

So here we are. What now?

BYU: A lot of people think BYU will stand pat and stay in the MWC now that the WAC is crumbling, but there's no guarantee of that. BYU's position with The Mtn and BYU-TV haven't changed, and BYU is one of the few schools whose fans would benefit from regular trips to Hawaii (BYU has a satellite campus near Honolulu) and Utah State. Plus, BYU absolutely loathes the fact that Utah was able to get out of the MWC while BYU never got an invite. Also don't forget that BYU wasn't planning on affiliating with the WAC for football and, between Hawaii and Utah State, it's not like the WAC is shooting blanks on the men's basketball front.

Put another way, going to the WAC would definitely hurt BYU nationally, but there's a good chance that it might still help BYU with its natural constituency. Given a choice between some national popularity and what would amount to a Mormon athletic fan service on their own channel, don't be surprised if BYU goes against the grain on this one.

The WAC: A lot of people are also thinking the WAC will disappear. After a bit of thought, I'm not one of them for one reason and one reason only - where else are these schools going to go?

Of the remainder, New Mexico State and Louisiana Tech are in the best position geographically to leave; however, I doubt either would leave the WAC for the Sun Belt, so they would need Conference USA to decide to expand to fourteen teams. Considering how C-USA already has a presence in El Paso (UTEP) and Louisiana Tech doesn't really bring much to the table, I doubt they'd bother. As for the rest, they're too far west to be logistically worthwhile for other mid-major to consider. In my mind, the only way the WAC is completely dissolving is if either an FCS conference like the Big Sky or the WCC decides to pursue FBS-level football wholesale, or if the teams in the WAC mutually decide to drop down to the FCS. I don't see either situation happening right now.

That's not to say the conference isn't in trouble, though. Outside of the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl, the WAC doesn't have many built in bowl opportunities anymore. There also isn't a TV-friendly football team left in the conference, though at least Utah State and Hawaii are respectable in college basketball. Meanwhile, the financial difficulties inherent in a conference that requires teams to travel to Ruston and Honolulu every other year certainly didn't get any easier.

If the WAC is going to survive long-term, it really needs to rationalize its geography somehow. That might mean expanding to twelve teams, soaking up as many of the UT-San Antonios and UC Davises of the world as they can so there would be two geographically sensible divisions. It might mean politely asking Louisiana Tech and New Mexico State to find other opportunities while doubling down on the likes of Montana and UC Davis. No matter how the problem is resolved, it needs to be resolved sooner than later.

One thing is certain, though - the WAC isn't going anywhere anytime soon. There's $5-10 million on the table for the conference calling itself the "Western Athletic Conference". As long as that's the case, there will be a conference there ready, willing, and able to collect that.

MWC: If BYU does stick around, the MWC will remain in excellent shape. Between Boise State, BYU, and TCU, there's enough success on the gridiron to ensure that the MWC makes it through its BCS probation. Meanwhile, Fresno, Boise and Reno will make up for the loss of half of the MWC's strongest media market.

Without BYU, though, things get murkier. At the very least, the MWC's bid for a permanent table with the BCS will be damaged; unless they're able to poach a moderately successful school from one of the other conferences (Houston?), it's going to be an uphill climb. On the TV front, it would probably spell the end of "The Mtn" - there just isn't enough interest (or size) from the rest of the conference's markets to justify its continued existence.

Nevada and Fresno State: Even if BYU leaves, the remainder of the MWC will still be a stronger football conference than the WAC was. Plus, both schools finally got Ruston and Honolulu off their travel dockets, which will save a considerable amount of time, money and effort. That said, the remainder of the MWC might be a slight downgrade in men's basketball - though UNLV is getting better, it still doesn't quite measure up to Utah State. Fortunately, Colorado State, TCU and San Diego State have been improving lately, so that might carry forward for a few years, and the worst of the MWC isn't anywhere near as bad as San Jose State or Idaho. Coach Carter is excited, if nothing else, so that bodes well; I think Gary Powers is still bitter that his team left the baseball-happy Big West.

Ultimately, if BYU stays with the MWC, the move was a very positive step forward for both Nevada and Fresno State. If they don't, it's still a net gain, albeit more of a marginal one.

These are my thoughts on the subject. If you haven't already, check out Dan Hinxman's excellent coverage on the RGJ, including excerpts of what other media sources are saying.

If you have anything to add, feel free to do so!