It's Not Over Yet

With Nevada and Fresno State heading to the Mountain West and the WAC gutted like a freshly caught trout, BYU has suddenly become rather quiet about their plans. Interestingly, they've gone quiet in both directions - they're not announcing that they're going independent, but they're also not announcing that they're staying in the MWC, either. So, which way are the tea leaves looking?

To gain some insight into this, let's recap from last week's post:

BYU: A lot of people think BYU will stand pat and stay in the MWC now that the WAC is crumbling, but there's no guarantee of that. BYU's position with The Mtn and BYU-TV haven't changed, and BYU is one of the few schools whose fans would benefit from regular trips to Hawaii (BYU has a satellite campus near Honolulu) and Utah State. Plus, BYU absolutely loathes the fact that Utah was able to get out of the MWC while BYU never got an invite. Also don't forget that BYU wasn't planning on affiliating with the WAC for football and, between Hawaii and Utah State, it's not like the WAC is shooting blanks on the men's basketball front.

Put another way, going to the WAC would definitely hurt BYU nationally, but there's a good chance that it might still help BYU with its natural constituency. Given a choice between some national popularity and what would amount to a Mormon athletic fan service on their own channel, don't be surprised if BYU goes against the grain on this one.

This brings me to an article from Saturday's Deseret News, New broadcast facility key to Y.'s TV dreams:

PROVO — It sits on a hill, its tall glass facade gleaming in the sunlight, a modern tower housing a state-of-the-art TV studio that rivals anything in the industry.

This 100,000-square-foot building, filled with enough soundproof walls to build another complete building, has a giant belly filled with complicated cables, wires, high-definition production wares and state-of-the art technology that feeds a modern TV studio.

Next to it is a sports studio. All of this can split off four BYU-TV broadcasts simultaneously and is rigged for digital media operations and Internet streaming. This tower of glass and mortar is hard-wired with video and audio HD capability direct to LaVell Edwards Stadium and the Marriott Center, reducing the need for one of those giant TV trucks.

And a truck? BYU owns the best HD production truck in the West.

This network, with its capabilities and instant access to DirecTV and Dish Network's basic platform and 200 cable companies in North America, is at the center of the national story that caught the attention of the college football world this past week.

Yet, few still have caught on.

And this isn't really a new story. It is a chapter in an ongoing saga.

Since the inception of the Mountain West Conference deal with Comcast and creation of the league's network, The mtn., in partnership with Versus and CBS C, BYU's administration has spoken frequently and loudly on how restrictive aspects of the deal were unacceptable.

Part of the complaint is freedom to retain some broadcast rights, while another part is replaying games on BYU's own systems. But nobody listened, until this week.

There is a huge difference between reaching 4 million households as opposed to an estimated 50 million in North America and another 60 million to 70 million in Spanish and Portuguese-speaking countries of South America and parts of Polynesia. That is what BYU's facilities can provide the school and its owner, The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, who'd love to couch sports with other programming.

The key detail to remember here is that, without the Salt Lake City market, there is no "The Mtn". We brought this up last week:

Look at the list of MWC markets, and consider the top three markets listed there. Dallas isn't a college sports town; even if they were, I suspect there are more University of Texas fans up there than there are fans for a small private school in nearby Fort Worth. Colorado State's position in Denver, meanwhile, is overshadowed by its significantly larger and more successful sibling in Boulder. San Diego is notoriously apathetic to sports in general and to college sports especially; of course, San Diego State hasn't gone out of its way to improve things. So, Salt Lake City is the largest TV market that the MWC serves where people actually care. In fact, if you work your way down the list, you'll quickly discover that Salt Lake City is the only TV market of appreciable size that consistently cares about MWC sports, which means Salt Lake City is the only market that doesn't just unwittingly subscribe to "The Mtn.", they actually watch it and, more importantly, advertise on it.

Utah's departure split that market in half.

Well, guess what? People in Utah know that. From the aforementioned Deseret News article:

The departure of Utah and possibly BYU would be a major blow to the MWC's network. Those two schools clearly have been the biggest audience draw, and when they play one another the rivalry sets records — the best numbers the league can produce. Larger population areas of San Diego, Las Vegas and Denver should pull big numbers for MWC network, but they just do not.

Numbers speak volumes.

The proposed MWC in 2013 has a current average attendance in football of just more than 28,000 per game in their respective stadiums. BYU draws just fewer than 65,000 on Saturdays. The actual TV differential draw may not be that dramatic, but it is a significant bump on Comcast's radar and they know it.

There is no evidence the Fresno, Calif., or Reno, Nev., markets would be any different than San Diego or Las Vegas — places where viewers, subscribers and commercial contracts have just not caught fire, although Fresno is in Comcast cable territory.

The past few years, The mtn. network has featured a lot of Utah-based advertising, like the travel interest to St. George and Mesquite. This year we'll see another Utah-based company start selling its office wares on the league network.

Where is Sea World? Where is Las Vegas and all its glimmer? Who is selling The mtn., anyway, and will we see that "To the Max" advertisement every break for another season?

Emphasis ours.

In short, "The Mtn." and the MWC need BYU far more than BYU needs either "The Mtn." or the MWC, and the WAC's semi-implosion hasn't changed that. That merely changed some of the options on the table for BYU. BYU still has its own channel, along with a far more successful distribution pattern than the MWC's channel. It has more than enough equipment to broadcast BYU sports. It's also the last tie to the only market "The Mtn." broadcasts to that actually generates any interest or profit, and no, bringing in Utah State won't fix that.

BYU has a little over a week to make its decision. Stay tuned.