So... What Just Happened?!

NOTE: This is a long post. You've been warned.

The RGJ, among several other sources, are reporting the Nevada and Fresno State are leaving the WAC for the Mountain West Conference. How did we get here? Now that the dust is starting to settle, let's see if we can piece everything together.

1. "The Mtn."

In 2006, the MWC and ESPN were in negotiations for another TV contract. ESPN was offering a contract similar to the one the WAC presently enjoys with ESPN, with high-profile MWC games broadcasted nationally on off-peak times, such as Wednesdays, Thursdays, Fridays, and Sundays. In exchange, the projected payout probably would have been higher than the $4 million per year that the WAC presently receives, but not by much.

The MWC in general - and BYU specifically - refused.

Due to BYU's prohibition against Sunday sporting activities of any sort, playing games on Sunday or playing games on days that would require a Sunday practice are forbidden (this, by the way, is a major reason why BYU will never end up in a major conference). Consequently, most of the flexibility in scheduling that ESPN was looking for was impossible, which would have lowered the resulting payout. On top of that, ESPN wasn't particularly interested in heavily promoting MWC men's basketball; this failed to impress most of the major players in the MWC, including Utah, BYU, and UNLV. Meanwhile, since ESPN was only interested in cherry-picking the top football games in the conference, schools like Wyoming, New Mexico and San Diego State would only gain a small paycheck from the deal with little additional exposure. Needless to say, ESPN's deal left a lot to be desired.

As undesirable as ESPN's deal was, something needed to replace it. Since nobody else was knocking on the door, the MWC decided to do something truly unprecedented - they started their own cable sports network. Now they could broadcast all the games they wanted whenever they wanted - this simplified scheduling considerably. They could give airtime to other MWC sports that ordinarily wouldn't merit much of it - women's volleyball, baseball, even college basketball. Best of all, they could keep all of the profit generated from their network. Of course, in order for this to work, people would not only have to be able to watch the network, they'd have to have a reason to. With help from Comcast and CBS College Sports Network, the MWC was able to distribute their sports network on most cable networks in MWC territory, along with DirectTV. In exchange, the MWC required all home games to be broadcast through this new network, even games that were traditionally broadcast by local TV providers.

The end result was a network that sacrificed national exposure in exchange for more money and increased local exposure in MWC markets - and MWC's media markets weren't particularly small. They included (population numbers from here):

Rank - Location - Population - Schools
5 - Dallas-Ft Worth, TX - 2,544,410 - TCU
16 - Denver, CO - 1,539,380 - Colorado State (technically in Ft. Collins, which is in Denver's media market)
28 - San Diego, CA - 1,073,390 - San Diego State
31 - Salt Lake City, UT - 944,640 - Utah, BYU
42 - Las Vegas, NV - 721,780 - UNLV
44 - Albuquerque-Santa Fe, NM - 694,040 - New Mexico
92 - Colorado Springs-Pueblo, CO - 334,710 - Air Force
197 - Cheyenne, WY-Scottsbluff, NE - 54,710 - Wyoming
Total Population: 7,907,060

To put this into perspective, let's compare to the WAC's media markets at the beginning of this year:
6 - San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, CA - 2,503,400 - San Jose State
31 - Salt Lake City, UT - 944,640 - Utah State
55 - Fresno-Visalia, CA - 579,180 - Fresno State
71 - Honolulu, HI - 433,240 - Hawaii
75 - Spokane, WA - 419,350 - Idaho (I'm not sure if Moscow is in Spokane's market, but this is as close as I could get.)
98 - El Paso, TX - 310,760 - New Mexico State (I'm not sure if Las Cruces is in El Paso's market or not, but it's the closest major city.)
108 - Reno, NV - 270,500 - Nevada
112 - Boise, ID - 262,800 - Boise State
138 - Monroe, LA-El Dorado, AR - 177,200 - Louisiana Tech (I'm not sure if Ruston is in Monroe's market or Shreveport's; technically, Ruston is closer to Monroe, so that's what I'm going with.)
Total Population: 5,901,070

Note that the WAC numbers are wildly optimistic since many of the WAC schools are in remote cities that are too small to be listed, such as Moscow and Ruston. Furthermore, I guarantee you there aren't nearly a million people in Utah that are excited about Utah State athletics, nor are there over two million people in the Bay Area that are transfixed by the athletic prowess of San Jose State.

(Of course, there aren't over two million people in Dallas-Fort Worth that religiously follow TCU sports, nor a million and a half in Denver nervously scanning Colorado State box scores, but I'm getting ahead of myself...)

For more information, check out this informative article on the MWC's TV situation in the Idaho Statesman.

2. Utah leaves the MWC for the Pac-10.

That Utah accepted the Pac-10 invite was not surprising. How that would affect the MWC, however, wasn't entirely obvious, and it wasn't just about what Utah's departure meant for the MWC's BCS probation. The bigger issue was that Utah's departure took half of Salt Lake City's TV market with them.

Why is that so important? Look at the list of MWC markets, and consider the top three markets listed there. Dallas isn't a college sports town; even if they were, I suspect there are more University of Texas fans up there than there are fans for a small private school in nearby Fort Worth. Colorado State's position in Denver, meanwhile, is overshadowed by its significantly larger and more successful sibling in Boulder. San Diego is notoriously apathetic to sports in general and to college sports especially; of course, San Diego State hasn't gone out of its way to improve things. So, Salt Lake City is the largest TV market that the MWC serves where people actually care. In fact, if you work your way down the list, you'll quickly discover that Salt Lake City is the only TV market of appreciable size that consistently cares about MWC sports, which means Salt Lake City is the only market that doesn't just unwittingly subscribe to "The Mtn.", they actually watch it and, more importantly, advertise on it.

Utah's departure split that market in half.

Suddenly, what was already a dicey TV strategy - cable distribution still hasn't been secured in Dallas-Fort Worth or in San Diego, and it took a couple of years before DirecTV distributed it as part of their sports tier - became completely untenable. Of course, for most of the schools in the MWC, it didn't matter how untenable "The Mtn." was - there weren't any other options.

For most, but not all...

3. BYU prepares its exit strategy.

Unlike the rest of the MWC, BYU has its own television station (BYU-TV). Unlike "The Mtn.", which is currently only available to roughly eight million subscribers in a fairly compact geographical region, BYU-TV is available to forty million subscribers across the country. Naturally, BYU would love nothing more than to be able to broadcast their games on BYU-TV and enjoy the increased exposure available. Failing that, BYU has never been particularly happy about "The Mtn." or its lackluster distribution; at one point, BYU and Utah hired an attorney to "explore possible alternatives". Consequently, finding a way to get back on to national television - any way at all, really - was a priority.

The WAC was more than happy to oblige.

Boise State's departure from the WAC wounded the conference, but it didn't kill it. Boise's media market isn't particularly large, even by WAC standards (Fresno, Honolulu and Reno serve the same role for the WAC that Salt Lake City served for the MWC), but losing the only nationally renown football program in the conference didn't make upcoming negotiations with ESPN any easier. BYU was more than happy to capitalize on the WAC's condition - in exchange for replacing Boise State as the nationally renown flagship of the conference, BYU would get to piggy-back on the WAC's more widely distributed TV package through ESPN. Provided BYU became an independent, the WAC would even look the other way while BYU leveraged their investment in BYU-TV into a profitable BYU-centered sports network. It looked like a win-win for everyone, and all BYU asked in return was a guarantee that the WAC would still be around when BYU pulled the trigger. That guarantee was made in the form of a $5 million buyout that all WAC schools were obligated to pay if they left this year.

It wasn't enough.

4. The Prisoner's Dilemma

In the post-Boise State WAC, there were only three schools that mattered - Fresno State, Nevada, and Hawaii. They commanded the three largest markets in the WAC that actually cared about them (sorry, San Jose State and Utah State) and they were the only three teams left that were consistently decent in football and men's basketball. Of those three, Hawaii was never going to leave - no other conference is interested in the inherent scheduling difficulties or travel expenses that regular trips to Hawaii bring on. This left Nevada and Fresno State in a classic prisoner's dilemma. If they both stayed in the WAC, they had a decent chance of making the conference work for them, especially since BYU wouldn't be contending for a conference championship. If either of them left, however, not only would BYU reconsider its position, the remaining school would have to contend with maintaining national relevance while playing a conference that would only be slightly tougher (and slightly more interesting) than the Sun Belt.

The MWC called both of the "prisoners" in. As so often happens in a prisoner's dilemma situation, both prisoners caved. They didn't really have a choice.

So here we are. What now?

BYU: A lot of people think BYU will stand pat and stay in the MWC now that the WAC is crumbling, but there's no guarantee of that. BYU's position with The Mtn and BYU-TV haven't changed, and BYU is one of the few schools whose fans would benefit from regular trips to Hawaii (BYU has a satellite campus near Honolulu) and Utah State. Plus, BYU absolutely loathes the fact that Utah was able to get out of the MWC while BYU never got an invite. Also don't forget that BYU wasn't planning on affiliating with the WAC for football and, between Hawaii and Utah State, it's not like the WAC is shooting blanks on the men's basketball front.

Put another way, going to the WAC would definitely hurt BYU nationally, but there's a good chance that it might still help BYU with its natural constituency. Given a choice between some national popularity and what would amount to a Mormon athletic fan service on their own channel, don't be surprised if BYU goes against the grain on this one.

The WAC: A lot of people are also thinking the WAC will disappear. After a bit of thought, I'm not one of them for one reason and one reason only - where else are these schools going to go?

Of the remainder, New Mexico State and Louisiana Tech are in the best position geographically to leave; however, I doubt either would leave the WAC for the Sun Belt, so they would need Conference USA to decide to expand to fourteen teams. Considering how C-USA already has a presence in El Paso (UTEP) and Louisiana Tech doesn't really bring much to the table, I doubt they'd bother. As for the rest, they're too far west to be logistically worthwhile for other mid-major to consider. In my mind, the only way the WAC is completely dissolving is if either an FCS conference like the Big Sky or the WCC decides to pursue FBS-level football wholesale, or if the teams in the WAC mutually decide to drop down to the FCS. I don't see either situation happening right now.

That's not to say the conference isn't in trouble, though. Outside of the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl, the WAC doesn't have many built in bowl opportunities anymore. There also isn't a TV-friendly football team left in the conference, though at least Utah State and Hawaii are respectable in college basketball. Meanwhile, the financial difficulties inherent in a conference that requires teams to travel to Ruston and Honolulu every other year certainly didn't get any easier.

If the WAC is going to survive long-term, it really needs to rationalize its geography somehow. That might mean expanding to twelve teams, soaking up as many of the UT-San Antonios and UC Davises of the world as they can so there would be two geographically sensible divisions. It might mean politely asking Louisiana Tech and New Mexico State to find other opportunities while doubling down on the likes of Montana and UC Davis. No matter how the problem is resolved, it needs to be resolved sooner than later.

One thing is certain, though - the WAC isn't going anywhere anytime soon. There's $5-10 million on the table for the conference calling itself the "Western Athletic Conference". As long as that's the case, there will be a conference there ready, willing, and able to collect that.

MWC: If BYU does stick around, the MWC will remain in excellent shape. Between Boise State, BYU, and TCU, there's enough success on the gridiron to ensure that the MWC makes it through its BCS probation. Meanwhile, Fresno, Boise and Reno will make up for the loss of half of the MWC's strongest media market.

Without BYU, though, things get murkier. At the very least, the MWC's bid for a permanent table with the BCS will be damaged; unless they're able to poach a moderately successful school from one of the other conferences (Houston?), it's going to be an uphill climb. On the TV front, it would probably spell the end of "The Mtn" - there just isn't enough interest (or size) from the rest of the conference's markets to justify its continued existence.

Nevada and Fresno State: Even if BYU leaves, the remainder of the MWC will still be a stronger football conference than the WAC was. Plus, both schools finally got Ruston and Honolulu off their travel dockets, which will save a considerable amount of time, money and effort. That said, the remainder of the MWC might be a slight downgrade in men's basketball - though UNLV is getting better, it still doesn't quite measure up to Utah State. Fortunately, Colorado State, TCU and San Diego State have been improving lately, so that might carry forward for a few years, and the worst of the MWC isn't anywhere near as bad as San Jose State or Idaho. Coach Carter is excited, if nothing else, so that bodes well; I think Gary Powers is still bitter that his team left the baseball-happy Big West.

Ultimately, if BYU stays with the MWC, the move was a very positive step forward for both Nevada and Fresno State. If they don't, it's still a net gain, albeit more of a marginal one.

These are my thoughts on the subject. If you haven't already, check out Dan Hinxman's excellent coverage on the RGJ, including excerpts of what other media sources are saying.

If you have anything to add, feel free to do so!