So long, BYU

It's official - BYU is heading to the West Coast Conference (Deseret News):

PROVO — Brigham Young University has announced today it is going independent in football and have its other sports play in the West Coast Conference.

The school said its resignation from the Mountain West Conference will be effective June 30, 2011.

The eight members (Gonzaga, Loyola Marymount, Pepperdine, Portland, Saint Mary's, San Diego, San Francisco and Santa Clara) of the WCC have at least one thing in common with BYU — all are private, religiously affiliated institutions. The WCC schools reside in the Southern and Northern California, Oregon and Washington markets.

BYU will continue to compete in the NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision, beginning as an independent in fall 2011.

There are several ramifications for us.

1. The MWC just lost the last connection to Salt Lake City, which, as we discussed previously, was the only market keeping the MWC's TV deal worthwhile. The MWC might try to add Utah State to counteract that, but it won't be anywhere near enough. Of course, with BYU gone, the MWC will be sitting at ten teams, which will be far better for scheduling than an eleven team format. Don't be too terribly surprised if the MWC just lets "The Mtn." fold or lets it turn into a secondary media outlet for MWC games the way the WAC's new channel is situated.
2. There are some ambiguities in the hastily written $5 million "buyout" agreement - one of them is whether or not the buyout clause was contingent on BYU joining the WAC. The WAC's case against Nevada probably wasn't very strong to begin with since we never signed it; now that BYU isn't going to the WAC, there's a chance that Fresno State might be off the hook, too. This also raises several issues about the WAC's continued viability - since the WAC might not be able to split $5-10 million amongst each other, will there be enough incentive to keep the Big West II alive, and if so, for how long?

One thing that I can almost guarantee you won't see is the Mountain West expanding to twelve teams and creating a championship game. During the Super-WAC days, Las Vegas used to host the WAC Championship Game with decidedly mixed results. Not only were ratings poor, so was attendance; realistically, most schools in our class just don't travel very well. Consequently, I see the MWC staying pat at ten teams and reworking the TV deal to allow a major player like ESPN to serve as the primary carrier far more easily than I see the MWC attempting to set up a conference game with limited regional viability, especially since they've been there, done that once before.

Last thought - so much for the MWC's BCS aspirations. We're now back to ground zero on that front.

As for BYU... well, good luck. BYU just traded superior TV coverage through BYU-TV in exchange for national relevance. Without a conference affiliation to fall back on, there's absolutely no guarantee that they will ever see a BCS game again. Then again, with their own TV network following them around religiously, they might not need to.