The Successor Is... (cont.)

This is my reply to my compatriot's two posts on the subject, as well as to the comments we're starting to get here:

First, I'd like to thank everyone for showing up. It's great to know that people are finding us! That's awesome. Please feel free to comment anytime you'd like.

Second, Nevada is a program with some pretty serious limitations compared to a lot of places in the country. As my compatriot pointed out, Ault is considered "overpaid" by some in Reno, even though he's one of the cheapest coaches in the country. Our stadium only seated over 30,000 on paper. To put these numbers in perspective, let's compare our facilities, straight numbers, against the Pac-10:

FOOTBALL STADIUMS

Arizona Stadium - University of Arizona, capacity 56,000
Autzen Stadium - University of Oregon, capacity 54,000
Husky Stadium - University of Washington, capacity 72,500
Los Angeles Coliseum - University of Southern California, capacity 92,000
Martin Stadium - Washington State University, capacity 35,117
Memorial Stadium - University of California, capacity 75,662
Reser Stadium - Oregon State University, capacity 46,200
Rose Bowl - UCLA, capacity 91,136
Stanford Stadium - Stanford University, capacity 50,000
Sun Devil Stadium - Arizona State University, capacity 73,000

Now, where does our Mackay Stadium fit with this crowd? It doesn't. Our top capacity is "officially" 32,000, and, now that we're counting tickets correctly, it's much more likely that our stadium tops out in the 25,000-27,500 range. The good news in all of this is that our fellow WAC members don't have much bigger stadiums. Bronco Stadium tops out at 30,000, though there's a planned expansion to 50,000 in the works. Fresno State's Bulldog Stadium currently seats 41,000. Aloha Stadium and its 50,000 seats is just depressing, but one must remember that the UH is the only game in town out there.

Okay, so our stadium seats fewer people. So what? Well, simply put, more seats means more butts that can sit in those seats, which means more money. Unfortunately, our football team has not been drawing consistently enough for the athletic department to consider another expansion, which is understandable - when the team isn't very good, people aren't going to show up. Unlike Nebraska, we don't have 40+ years of nationally renown tradition to generate decades of sellouts. We're a small school that had some good fortune in I-AA, something which few outside of the area are even aware of, or, for that matter, care about. Worse yet, it's been at least a decade since the I-AA days, and though the football program is trending in the right direction, it's taking a long time to get there.

This brings me to why, if we get a "big name" coach, it's going to have to be someone with a severely damaged reputation. What this means is that we're not going to get Houston Nutt - Arkansas may have been stupid enough to let him go, but it doesn't mean he's going to show up here. Chances are, if we get a "big name", it'd be someone like Franchione... and, based on that guy's highly opportunistic history, I think we can do without him. He seems to have a little too much Dennis Erickson in him for my taste.

What's much more likely is that, when Ault is replaced, his replacement will come from one of three places:

1. A promising assistant coach from a larger program looking to get established. Tormey fit this mold, and, though he wasn't a great coach, he wasn't a terrible one. The problem with this type is that they tend to be young and ambitious, meaning they lack experience and, if they're remotely promising, they'll move on up to the next challenge. Still, if they are good, and they stick around for a few years, they can turn a program around.
2. A promising assistant coach from within the program. Tisdel and Horton fit this mold. History has shown this is probably not the way to go.
3. An older coach looking for a nice place to retire that's quiet and low pressure. San Jose State's Dick Tomey would fit in this role, as would June Jones. Frankly, we could do worse. They tend to have a little more lasting power than the type 1's, though their time is limited due to various biological concerns.

In light of Nevada's history with promoting from its own ranks, and since our program under the latest incarnation of Ault has not been good enough to avoid rocking the boat, I suspect we're much more likely to go with a type 1. After all, going with another old face won't seem like enough of a departure from where we're currently at, and Groth seems to know how to keep young talent around (see Mark Fox).