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Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Second Stat: Penalties

As good ol' Dan Hinxman of the RGJ has already noted, our football team has been suffering from some bad penalties. As a season wears on, penalties usually go down - not to zero, mind you, but to a nice, low number. One item mentioned by Dan is that Nevada's team under Ault has been traditionally quite disciplined. To quote:

"It has shown an uncanny knack for poorly timed mistakes and penalties, at times an uncharacteristic lack of discipline (usually a strength of Chris Ault-coached teams) and, not surprisingly, a penchant for wildly inconsistent play."

I found that statement interesting, so that's my statistic for today.

Interestingly, the results are somewhat mixed. In 2006, Nevada was tied for 109th in "most penalties received" with 55. In 2005, we were tied for 71st with 73, still well below half of the rest of Div I-A. In 2004, his first year, we were tied for 19th with 92, which was worse than 2003, in which we were tied for 48th with 86. This year, we're tied for 44th with 78, meaning that we're on pace for slightly fewer penalties than we received in 2003. Remember that, in this instance, you want to be in last place in this category - the fewer penalties you suffer, the better.

So, a quick perusal of the numbers reveals that some of Ault's teams have been disciplined, and that, as Ault has coached over the years, his teams do get more disciplined... up until this year.

Let's take a closer look at this year. If Ault's players are listening to him, following his coaching, then penalties should go down as the year progresses. Are they? Let's find out. This, of course, calls for more box score hunting.

Sep 1st, @ NEB
12 penalties, 86 yards

Sep 8th, @ NW
7 penalties, 60 yards

Sep 15th, Nicholls State
11 penalties, 94 yards

Sep 29th, UNLV
4 penalties, 40 yards
NOTE: This is the first game this season that we receive fewer penalties than our opponent.

Oct 6th, FRES
7 penalties, 65 yards

Oct 14th, @BSU
5 penalties, 25 yards

Oct 20th, @USU
4 penalties, 23 yards

Oct 27th, ID
8 penalties, 66 yards

Nov 2nd, @NMSU
10 penalties, 83 yards

Nov 16th, Hawaii
2 penalties, 7 yards
(Seriously, that's what ESPN's box score is reporting. I don't believe it, either.)

ESPN has no box score for the San Jose State game, so we'll leave that alone. Besides, leaving this on the Hawaii game makes it a little more compelling - our team was disciplined, it was poised, it fought hard, it played well... and it still lost, all because Ault doesn't know how to grind out a clock.

Don't worry, I'm not bitter about that. Really, I'm not. *grin*

So, what can we conclude by looking at the numbers? Ultimately, not much - there's no clear progression that penalties are decreasing. If they are, it's not by much. The Idaho and New Mexico State games were huge steps backwards on that front.

I'll admit, the evidence here is not as damning as I thought it would be when I started this post. However, it's still not great for him, either - this team's discipline has been all over the map, and Ault clearly went through an adjustment year when he came back. The lone bit of good news is that, as young players go through his program and his teams become more senior-laden, penalties go down to where they belong... which makes sense. Motivation and discipline are his strengths. He's just a lousy game day tactician. However, it would seem that, at least this year, his ability to maintain discipline is slipping, in much the same way that his game-day tactical decisions are slipping.

Coincidence? I think not...

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