Nevada vs. Eastern Washington First Figures

Unfortunately we'll have to wait until this weekend for the full-fledged statistical breakdown of the game.  However, there are a few things I'd like to mention and a few comparisons I'd like to make.

49-24 is a respectable score for an opening season win; and it's not as if Nevada were playing Idaho State - E Wash was ranked in the mid teens in the FCS preseason polls, depending upon which one you reference.  The Eagles played hard, they played well, and they have some d*** fine athletes on their team.

Even so, for a team trying to compete on a national stage, let alone Boise State, AND 'moving up' (depending upon how you look at things) in the world within the next couple of seasons, plus Ault's apparently tenuous position right now, Nevada needed this to be a statement game.

The score not withholding, the stats between the two were a bit too close for a true Theodore Roosevelt statement...we're not talking James Buchanan bad here, but maybe more along the lines of Rutherford B. Hayes territory (for those who aren't total history geeks: it could have been  Nevada vs. Southern Utah bad).

	E Washington	Nevada
1st Downs	20	24
3rd down efficiency	6-14	8-15
4th down efficiency	0-1	3-3
Total Yards	432	553
Passing	270	339
Comp-Att	21-40	27-38
Yards per pass	12.9	12.6
Rushing	162	214
Rushing Attempts	28	44
Yards per rush	5.8	4.9
Penalties	4-35	9-90
Turnovers	2	1
Fumbles lost	1	1
Interceptions thrown	1	0
Possession	25:49	34:11

stats: espn

Nevada had a respectable 553 total yards...but gave up 432 in return; Nevada had 24 1st downs to EW's 20; and time of possession was WAY closer than it needed to be.  So congrats to Mike Bradeson for doing the impossible and making our secondary even WORSE than it was last year.  Granted, first game and all, but...GAH!

Compare those figures to, say, the statistics from last year's game at Colorado State:

Nevada	Colorado St
1st Downs	23	21
Total Yards	420	369
Passing	251	190
Rushing	169	179
Penalties	11-64	4-36
3rd Down Conversions	7-13	5-12
4th Down Conversions	0-0	1-1
Turnovers	5	0
Possession	30:59	29:01

stats: espn

I would also like to point out that Nevada gave up as many 1st downs to E Wash as they did to Notre Dame in last years opener; they also gave up only 62 fewer yards passing and 16 fewer yards rushing than they did in that same fateful 35-0 loss at South Bend.

And, of course, once again penalties were a killer; I don't think anything more has to be said there.

Next week the Pack gets to avenge itself upon Colorado State.  Now CSU gets to play Colorado on Saturday, and the Buffs weren't very good last year.  Then again, neither was Colorado State, who may very well end up sauntering into Mackay with the knowledge that their last victory was September 19th, 2009 against Nevada.  That is one game, especially considering the remainder of the OOC schedule, that Ault simply cannot afford to lose.

Misc:
Nevada as a team rushed for a total of 214 yards...total; Kaepernick led that category with a whopping 60 yards on 11 carries.

Kaep was also 26/37 passing (70.270270270%) for 306 yards; Tyler Lantrip added a 1/1 for 33 yards setting up a 1 yard TD run by Lampford Mark with 3:38 left in the game.

Mike Ball had two kick returns for a total of 75 yards, 57 of which were on the opening kick.  Mike Ball is a stud.

Post-Game Mobile Reflection

Writing this on the phone...

Believe it or not, I'm not panicking over this. Yes, the game was closer than it should have been, but we never play well on our first game.

Offense: Not bad. We clearly focused on the passing game this time around and it doesn't look half bad. Kaep is definitely being more daring with the ball than he was last year - hopefully it pays dividends in the long run.

Defense: The "new" defense doesn't look any different than the old defense. That's a big, big problem. If I didn't know any better, I'd even swear we regressed on run defense. I hope we improve, but it's clear that we're running from a serious talent and coaching deficit.

Special Teams: Not great, not bad. Picked up some good returns, but also let them get a few, too.

Stadium: Our defense needs to take pointers from the concessions staff - they wouldn't let anyone through! Seriously, though, some of the cashiers need some additional training. Speed is key - don't make everyone wait because somebody is waiting on their hot dog.

That's it for now - more tomorrow!

Game Day! Three Things to Watch

Quick thought before I collect myself for the season opener.  Since it is the first game of the season, both teams will have a few cobwebs to dust off.  With that in mind, there are three quick things to watch.

1.) Offense: As good as Kaep is, as of last season he still has some rather David Neill-esque moments of poor decision making (when to throw away, for instance).  E Wash has some solid defensive players, but the Pack's Union should be able to keep them largely in check, but the QB does need to be mindful when he's forced to scramble.

2.) Pass D: with the shambles that this area was last year I'm just not convinced how much improvement could have been made just in the off season.  E Wash's QB has D-1 experience (at SMU, might I add), and that team can throw.  Don't be surprised if they make more than a couple impressive plays and gain some ground through the air.

3.) Spec. Teams: let's face it, the Pack has a long history of mediocrity in this area, and the returners as long as I can remember have a nasty habit of dropping the ball; butter fingers will make this a far more interesting night than it needs to be.

The spread, according to this morning's RG-J, is 26...that should be perfectly manageable.  If not...

...

Now aside from that...let's get out there and clobber these guys!

Why BYU Will Be Just Fine

This will hopefully be my last post on this subject - I promise. However, I felt it was important to sum up why BYU left, why BYU joined the WCC instead of the WAC, and why BYU will be in better shape as a football independent than they would have been as a member of the Mountain West.

The key to understanding BYU's departure is to look at what BYU loses by leaving the Mountain West. In FBS-level college football, programs are paid for three ways:

1. TV and other media deals
2. Stadium attendance
3. Bowl tie-ins

Consequently, schools choose conference affiliations based on who can provide the best media deals for their teams, who can regularly provide interesting opponents that will draw fans to the stadium, and who can arrange the best bowl tie-ins. With that in mind, what did BYU just walk away from?

TV and other media deals
As we've discussed several times in the past, the Mountain West TV deal is a dog, especially with Utah out of the conference. All games in all sports for all Mountain West schools are contractually obligated to be broadcast on only "The Mtn." - this means neither local TV nor national outlets can't broadcast most of the games. "The Mtn." is only distributed to roughly 8 million people; adding insult to injury, most of the ratings and advertising comes from Salt Lake City. As we mentioned in the past, half of that market walked out the door when Utah went to the Pac-10.

Meanwhile, BYU has access to its own channel (BYU-TV), which is distributed to over 40 million people and which is watched religiously by a much broader regional and national audience than "The Mtn." ever would be. Also, by extricating themselves from the exclusivity deal with "The Mtn.", they can broadcast higher-end games through ESPN or another national outlet, further broadening exposure and revenue. Best of all, they don't have to share any revenue generated from their media deals with the likes of Colorado State or the University of New Mexico.

Stadium attendance

BYU led the Mountain West in attendance and it wasn't even close - TCU was the next closest with just over half of BYU's average attendance. In fact, BYU's average attendance exceeds their stadium's official capacity. Needless to say, you don't achieve that by losing half of your fans whenever someone mediocre comes into the stadium. This means BYU doesn't really need the MWC to guarantee interesting games for their fans - as long as they get Utah and Utah State to show up (it won't be hard), they'll be just fine.

Bowl tie-ins

Though the MWC was attempting to become a BCS conference, there were no guarantees that it would make it through the probationary period, even if it replacing Utah with Boise State. Consequently, the only bowls that BYU could count on the MWC receiving on a regular basis were the preexisting non-BCS bowl tie-ins that the MWC regularly enjoyed. Last year, they were (payouts in parenthesis):

MAACO Las Vegas Bowl ($1,000,000)
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl ($750,000)
New Mexico Bowl ($750,000)
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl ($600,000)
Grand Total: $3,100,000

Now, like most conferences, MWC schools share all of the revenue from all of the bowls equally - consequently, any bowl payout was split nine ways, and, if BYU stayed, would have been split eleven ways. So, assuming no MWC schools made it to a BCS game, the total bowl payout given to each team in the MWC would be nearly $282,000. Of course, if a MWC team successfully made it to a BCS game, earning the conference the corresponding $18 million payout, the total bowl payout would increase to nearly $2,000,000.

So, with BYU out of the MWC, how will it get into bowl games without any guaranteed conference affiliations? Surprisingly easily, actually, for one very good reason. BYU is one of the few mid-major programs in the country that actually travels well. In fact, BYU fans' proclivity for travel has led the Las Vegas Bowl to take BYU each and every year it got a chance to invite them because they sell out the stadium every single time. To put this into perspective, let's take a look at the attendance figures for each of the bowl games listed above (taken from ESPN):

MAACO Las Vegas Bowl (BYU vs. Oregon State): 40,018
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl (Utah vs. California): 32,665
New Mexico Bowl (Wyoming vs. Fresno State): 24,898
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl (Air Force vs. Houston): 41,414

If you compare it to WAC bowl games, it still bears out (excluding the previously listed New Mexico Bowl and the Fiesta Bowl):
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl (Nevada vs. SMU): 32.650
Roady's Humanitarian Bowl (Idaho vs. Bowling Green): 26.726

The only bowl game involving a MWC or WAC team that had a higher attendance than the sold out Las Vegas Bowl was the Armed Forces Bowl, and it was held only 200 miles from an unprecedentedly good Houston team and its excited fans. Better yet, until BYU was invited to the Las Vegas Bowl, there was a serious chance that the game would have to be cancelled - attendance simply wasn't high enough to maintain it.

What this means for BYU is that, as long as there's an opening somewhere at a mid-major bowl, they will receive an invite. In fact, if the rest of the MWC isn't able to bring enough fans to the Las Vegas Bowl to maintain its viability, don't be surprised if the Las Vegas Bowl cancels their affiliation with the MWC and tries to woo BYU every year. Best of all, instead of having to split whatever bowl payout they receive with eight, nine, or ten other teams, they get to keep every last dime.

Given a choice between being guaranteed roughly $1,000,000 every year they have a winning record or getting $282,000 some years and just under $2,000,000 other years, this is basically a push. That it's only a push really says something about how much BYU needs the MWC and how much the MWC needs BYU.

So, let's recap. BYU's attendance won't be hurt by leaving the MWC, its bowl prospects won't be hurt, and the TV deal that it'll be able to put together for itself will be vastly superior to anything the MWC is willing to consider right now. That, in a nutshell, is why BYU left the MWC.

Makes sense, doesn't it?

With that out of the way, why the WCC instead of the WAC? That's actually fairly easy, too - the WCC is simply a better basketball conference than the WAC. Between Gonzaga, St. Mary's, and now BYU, it's a vastly superior basketball conference than Utah State and supporting cast. Bear in mind that Nevada and Fresno State were two of the best basketball programs in the WAC and they just left; without them, it's up to Hawaii or New Mexico State to make a halfway decent showing. As an added bonus, the WCC consists of nothing but private, largely religious institutions - if anyone will understand BYU's desire to avoid playing on Sundays, it will be them.

In preparation for the upcoming season, now less than 48 hours away, I would like to reach back into the archives and reopen some 'old wounds.'

From January, 2010:
Shackled to a Corpse

We now have statements from both AD Groth and Coach Ault.  Ault stays, Wilson (sigh) stays, Buh is in, House is definately out. 

Groth's Statement

Ault's Statement

Groth not only reafirms her backing of Ault, she reinforces it with a diatribe of accolades, concluding by saying that: "...Coach Ault has 100 percent of (her) support and the support of this athletics program going into next year."  So, like Germany with Austria-Hungary in the First World War, we are a program shackled to a corpse.

At least for next season.

For it would seem that not all is as it appears.  Groth wasted no time heaping on the defense (I'll stop short of calling it all 'praise') for Ault and the 2009 Wolf Pack, but it quickly ran to excess (the lady doth protest too much, methinks), starting with a rather trite "He's done a heck of a lot for this institution...."

She began with: "The past couple of weeks, Coach Ault and I have had some good conversations, very good conversations."  Translation: Coach Ault and I have had some serious conversations.

She continued: "The average NCAA attendance when I arrived six years ago was 9,000. Last year, it was 18,000. It’s doubled in the six years he’s been coaching."  Translation: I'm going to sidestep a bit while I try to convince you (and myself) that we are going the right direction.

And on... "Here’s some of the challenges. We have community and fan indifference right now in our football program. We need to fix that, all of us together."  Translation: Transfering the blame off of Ault (and onto THE COMMUNITY!!!) takes the heat off of me, too!

"So how do we move forward? In talking with Coach Ault, I told him he needed to make a change in his defensive staff, and he agreed. It had to be done, and it wasn’t just in the defensive coordinator position."  Translation: I am starting to flex some authority over Ault here...see how serious our talks acutally were.

"One of the things that I told Coach Ault is that he shouldn’t have been put in that position in the Hawaii Bowl. His assistant coaches, it’s their responsibility to make sure that our team is prepared."  Translation: Did I go too far?  Back off!  Back off!

Ault's comments, on the otherhand, had a certain tenacity and fervor to them.  While he admitted early that the buck stops with him, he reinforced the blame of the defensive coaching staff and the community at large.  The overall flavor of his tenor: Ault was trying to sound strong, but now knows that his program is under the microscope...in short, he was on the defensive.

Read both statements, and consider the tenor of what the both of them are saying; let it sink in a little, and I think that nine out of ten of us will come to the same conclusion:

Ault is officially on probation.

Frankly, they wouldn't have had such an elaborate press conference for a routine firing, and they certainly wouldn't have gone through so many pains to appear riteous and even altruistic in their efforts if it meant anything else.  As with any other time a head coach makes a peculiar and potentially shattering move Ault could have run with the punches; he could have released a prepared statement; and there was no real reason for Groth to become so embroiled in the process, let alone to share the spotlight and discuss "...the future of the program."

And blaming the community is a sign of desperation, and a bad tactical move...a classic example of biting the hand that feeds you.  And Groth was quick to point out that attendance averages have doubled in the past six years, followed quickly by her lump of communal blame.  I don't think that anyone denies that community support could be stronger, and at the very least they admit the need to outreach and divine the needs and the desires of the larger community (Ault's tenure aside).  Then again, admiting that need is nothing new, as it seems to come up every year.

For the record, to compare extremes: the population of the greater Reno area and immediate outlying metro area: approx. 677,386; the population of the greater Lincoln, NE metro area: approx. 292,219.  According to Groth, average Mackay Stadium attendance in 2009: 18,000; average Memorial Stadium attendance in 2009: 85,888 (although it is a stone's throw from the 837,925 metro area of Omaha).  Now I'm not comparing the two programs, but a FBS football program for the flagship institution of the state in a metro area of that size should theoretically have little trouble bringing in a capacity crowd for humble little Mackay Stadium. 

For another comparison: Washtenaw County, MI (home of Ann Arbor and, therefore, the University of Michigan) has a total of 322,895; the metro area for Ann Arbor is 341,847; UM averaged 108,983 per game in 2009...and Michigan is struggling with a horrid economy and declining population (and UM went 5-7 overall, and 1-7 in the Big Ten).

There is something off here, but they need to truly evaluate what is off and why before playing the 'blame the community' card.  But play they did, and that is bad protocol and classless on the part of both parties. 

Yet regardless of where the blame has been 'officially' put, some conclusions are obvious: Groth is beginning to dictate terms to Ault; Ault is on the defensive; Ault is on probation...

...Ault is on probation...

...but, for now, the Pack is mired.

 This somehow seems fitting.

So long, BYU

It's official - BYU is heading to the West Coast Conference (Deseret News):

PROVO — Brigham Young University has announced today it is going independent in football and have its other sports play in the West Coast Conference.

The school said its resignation from the Mountain West Conference will be effective June 30, 2011.

The eight members (Gonzaga, Loyola Marymount, Pepperdine, Portland, Saint Mary's, San Diego, San Francisco and Santa Clara) of the WCC have at least one thing in common with BYU — all are private, religiously affiliated institutions. The WCC schools reside in the Southern and Northern California, Oregon and Washington markets.

BYU will continue to compete in the NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision, beginning as an independent in fall 2011.

There are several ramifications for us.

1. The MWC just lost the last connection to Salt Lake City, which, as we discussed previously, was the only market keeping the MWC's TV deal worthwhile. The MWC might try to add Utah State to counteract that, but it won't be anywhere near enough. Of course, with BYU gone, the MWC will be sitting at ten teams, which will be far better for scheduling than an eleven team format. Don't be too terribly surprised if the MWC just lets "The Mtn." fold or lets it turn into a secondary media outlet for MWC games the way the WAC's new channel is situated.
2. There are some ambiguities in the hastily written $5 million "buyout" agreement - one of them is whether or not the buyout clause was contingent on BYU joining the WAC. The WAC's case against Nevada probably wasn't very strong to begin with since we never signed it; now that BYU isn't going to the WAC, there's a chance that Fresno State might be off the hook, too. This also raises several issues about the WAC's continued viability - since the WAC might not be able to split $5-10 million amongst each other, will there be enough incentive to keep the Big West II alive, and if so, for how long?

One thing that I can almost guarantee you won't see is the Mountain West expanding to twelve teams and creating a championship game. During the Super-WAC days, Las Vegas used to host the WAC Championship Game with decidedly mixed results. Not only were ratings poor, so was attendance; realistically, most schools in our class just don't travel very well. Consequently, I see the MWC staying pat at ten teams and reworking the TV deal to allow a major player like ESPN to serve as the primary carrier far more easily than I see the MWC attempting to set up a conference game with limited regional viability, especially since they've been there, done that once before.

Last thought - so much for the MWC's BCS aspirations. We're now back to ground zero on that front.

As for BYU... well, good luck. BYU just traded superior TV coverage through BYU-TV in exchange for national relevance. Without a conference affiliation to fall back on, there's absolutely no guarantee that they will ever see a BCS game again. Then again, with their own TV network following them around religiously, they might not need to.

Where we stand

Y'know... it's really hard to argue with the work that Dan Hinxman is doing as of late. It really is. He posted a nice, in-depth writeup on the state of Nevada football compared to the rest of the MWC today in his blog. Some of the highlights:

Apparently there was no desire in June, or at least the timing wasn’t right. Heck, in a time when the university’s athletic department is facing a shortfall of more than $800,000 for fiscal 2009-2010, there was even talk of dropping down a division.

Two months later, having not done any kind of feasibility study, it was the right time to pull the trigger.

Yes, the circumstances that led to the invitation — Brigham Young’s apparent defection to the WAC and, once it was sniffed out, the MWC’s counterattack — were unusual. Add to that the MWC’s apparent deadline — Nevada had no more than a couple of days to reach a decision — and you’ve got a pretty stressful situation.

But it would have been a lot less stressful had Nevada done its feasibility homework.

And now the football program that survives in the WAC with an underfunded support staff must move on to another conference where nearly every team has much more firepower, where nearly every team is, in terms of finances and support, a Boise State.

Coach Chris Ault and his staff don’t get enough credit for what they’ve built and how they’ve done it. Yes, the Pack has been barely better than .500 the last four seasons and hasn’t won any of its last four bowl games, but given the level of support it receives it is a wonder they even become bowl eligible.

Emphasis mine. Another key quote:

» The coaching staff is among the lowest-paid in the WAC and in the MWC. (This is not to say that if you threw money at the coaches the team would get better. It’s just another example of how the program is underfunded.)

Believe it or not, I actually agree with the bold paragraph. We've touched on Ault's performance given the resources he has at his disposal several times in the past. In the WAC, his abilities as recruiter made it possible for us to stay in the upper echelon of the conference despite his clear handicaps at on-the-field play calling and his tendency to hire "good ol' boys" in assistant coaching positions. That's not going to cut it in the MWC, however - not only are we going to have to contend with Boise State on a regular basis, it looks like we're going to be dealing with a resurgent BYU, an improving Air Force, and a Colorado State team that always plays us tough. If we're not careful, we're going to be square in the middle of the conference with no way out.

Let's discuss what we can do about some of our deficiencies. I found these attendance numbers for the original MWC teams from an MWC message board - though it's not my first choice for a primary source, the numbers I have been able to verify were identical to what I'm seeing in the thread, so I'm running with them. For the WAC, I found the WAC's numbers here, (capacities in parenthesis):

1. BYU - 64,236 (64,045 - not a typo; we used to have attendance figures in excess of "capacity" before the local Fire Marshall told us to cut it out, too)
2. TCU - 38,187 (46,000)
3. Air Force - 35,656 (52,480)
4. Fresno State - 33,578 (41,031)
5. Boise State - 32,782 (33,610)
6. New Mexico - 26,944 (42,000)
7. San Diego State - 24,464 (71,294 - they play out of Qualcomm Stadium)
8. Colorado State - 23,643 (30,000)
9. UNLV - 22,775 (36,800)
10. Wyoming - 19,494 (33,500)
11. Nevada - 17,500 (29,993)

That would be us at the bottom of average attendance in 2009. Lower than Wyoming. Lower than UNLV. Lower than everyone. If you're wondering why we didn't get an invite to the MWC until after BYU took the conference hostage, that's why right there. The scary part, however, is that, if you sort by capacities, you get this:

1. San Diego State (71,294)
2. BYU (64,045)
3. Air Force (52,480)
4. TCU (46,000)
5. New Mexico (42,000)
6. Fresno State (41,031)
7. UNLV (36,800)
8. Boise State (33,610)
9. Wyoming (33,500)
10. Colorado State (30,000)
11. Nevada (29,993)

We not only have the lowest average attendance of all MWC teams, we have the lowest stadium capacity in the MWC. This means that we not only have the smallest revenue stream of all of the teams in the conference, we have the smallest potential revenue stream in the conference.

The good news is, if we actually filled Mackay to capacity on a regular basis, we'd be square in the middle of the conference in average attendance (and revenue). As an added bonus, we're a bigger advertising market than Fort Collins or Laramie, which certainly works to our advantage revenue-wise. We just have to capitalize on it.

Speaking of which, according to Hinxman's article:

The athletic department is operating in the red, having reported that $800,000 deficit mentioned above. But if the answer to that is filling Mackay Stadium — and it is — something has to change in the philosophy of how football is presented.

“Some of (closing the budget deficit) comes through advertising and some of it comes through making sure the experience at games is an enjoyable one so fans have a good time and want to come back,” Michael Wixom, a member of the Board of Regents, told the RGJ in June. “That’s ultimately the main goal and the best way to close the budget deficit.”

An $800,000 deficit, at $16 a ticket for general admission, works out to 50,000 additional seat purchases, or increasing attendance by nearly 10,000 per game. In other words, break-even for our team in the WAC doesn't happen until we nearly fill Mackay to the rafters every single game. We're not even close to that, and that's with us being consistently bowl eligible.

Realistically, there are only three ways we're getting out of the MWC budget cellar:

1. Cut costs. Ault is in the bottom third of coaching salaries in the FBS (what we used to call "Division I-A"), but the coaches he repeatedly hired during his tenure as AD were paid significantly less. There might - just might - have been a reason for that. How'd those coaches work out for us?
2. Raise revenue. You can only raise revenue so high when only 17,500 people are showing up to games, on average. Advertisers aren't going to pay much for the honor of pushing Wolf Pack games and we're not going to get much revenue from the seats or the concessions.
3. Hope Utah State joins so we don't look so bad.

At this point, I'm betting on the third, but I'll do what I can about the "raise revenue" side of things. I'd like to see Ault go, but I'd like to see him replaced by something better - that's not happening if we're holding the bottom end of the MWC.

Just ask Wyoming.

Nevada vs. Eastern Washington: All-Time Football Data

It's hard to believe that the time has come to start posting the weekly statistics and previews...yet here we are.

It being the first game of the season I wish there could be a bit more fanfare for this one; unfortunately, while there is a bit of history here it is fairly scant.  There were also no common opponents last season, so there's little other comparison that can be made, save this: E. Wash played at Cal last season and quickly opened up a 7-0 lead over the Golden Bears...then gave up 59 unanswered points in return.

So...whew, here we go.  

Oh, and fun fact: E. Wash was the runner up for the 1967-1968 NAIA National Championship with a 21-28 loss at Fairmont State...they went 3-7 the following season.

Also: in the ten years since the turn of the century, the Eagles have made the FCS postseason three times, advancing to the quarterfinals twice.

Nevada (8-5, 7-1 WAC, 2nd) vs. Eastern Washington (8-4, 6-2 Big Sky, T-2nd).

Not ancient, not storied, and not a rivalry, Nevada leads the all-time series 6-1, all of which came under Chris Ault, for the record.

Scoring:
Nevada: 250 E. Wash: 162 (Nevada +88)
Nevada PPG: 35.714285714
E. Wash PPG: 23.142857142

The series:

November 3, 1984

at Nevada: 35 E. Wash: 21

October 12, 1985

at Nevada: 31 E. Wash: 25

(E. Wash would lose in the D-1AA quarterfinals at N. Iowa 14-17)

October 25, 1986

at Nevada: 56 E. Wash: 22

September 12, 1987

Nevada: 40 at E. Wash: 26

November 12, 1988

at Nevada: 30 E. Wash: 12

September 9, 1989

at E. Wash: 33 Nevada: 7

October 19, 1991

Nevada: 51 at E. Wash: 14

(Statement made.)

Let the tail-gating begin in earnest.

All quiet on the Wasatch Front

It remains quiet so far from BYU, which has led to a certain amount of feverish speculation on the part of the local media over there. Ultimately, nobody really knows what BYU is going to do - perhaps not even BYU. Will it join the WCC with Gonzaga and St. Mary's? Will it prop up the remainder of the WAC? Will it stay in the MWC for one more year? Will it get a better TV deal and stay in the MWC for more than a year? Will it bring Utah State over as a twelfth team if it stays, or will it make the MWC twist in the wind with eleven schools? Or - and this is my personal favorite in the "feverish speculation" sweepstakes - will BYU grab a few schools from the MWC and the WAC and build yet another mid-major conference, leaving everyone else to twist in the wind?

Don't count that last one out. They've done it before.

Meanwhile, information is beginning to come out on how we reached this point in the first place. As several sources (including the RGJ) have reported, the Salt Lake Tribune recently received via an open records request a series of e-mails between Utah State and several other parties that sketches out nicely how all of this went down. The Idaho Statesman, meanwhile, dug into them a little further to isolate Boise State's role in this - apparently, Boise State's President stepped up to invite Nevada, Fresno State, and possibly even Utah State into the Mountain West. Meanwhile, Karl Benson attempted to talk UNLV into joining the WAC, which led to this e-mail (Salt Lake Tribune):

Scott,

Thought I would give you an update. Shortly after you and I spoke this morning, Nevada and Fresno were issued an invite to the MWC. Our President met with our chancellor and we are giving this opportunity serious thought. It would mean that Nevada and UNLV would finally be in the same conference.
We were hopeful that when Karl met with UNLV, they would consider joining the WAC. They were not interested.
As you know, our board has a resolution that was put in place a few years ago that states that both state schools would work towards a common conference. So much has happened in the past 6 hours -- I wanted you to know what has been going on as I told you that I would keep you posted.

Cary S. Groth
Director of Athletics
University of Nevada

What this means is that, as soon as the MWC issued the invite, we were practically duty-bound to accept it - our loyalty to our state will always be greater than our loyalty to an athletic conference. That's just a given. Of course, one of the ramifications of this is that, if UNLV accepted the WAC invite, the WAC would've ended up stronger than ever and the MWC would've lied in tatters.

So, if you're looking for someone to blame for the near-extinction of the WAC, blame the source of all evil - UNLV! It's easy, fun, and safe for the whole family!

Game-By-Game

Hey - Chris Murray did it, so why can't we?

Game 1: Eastern Washington vs. Nevada
This one shouldn't be close, but it probably will be. We tend to play poorly in our first game of the season; thankfully, we're playing Eastern Washington, so it won't matter. Expect things to be uncomfortably close in the first half, followed by our team actually waking up and playing some football in the second half. Score: Nevada 42, E Washington 14

Game 2: Colorado State vs. Nevada
Colorado State isn't very good and we're playing at home, so that should count for something. This game will give us a solid feel for how the rest of the season will go - will we be underachievers, or will we actually beat the teams we're supposed to beat? Keep in mind that Colorado State always plays us close. Score: Nevada 28, Colorado State 21

Game 3: Cal vs. Nevada
If you went to the Texas Tech game a couple of years ago, you'll have a pretty solid understanding of how this game will probably go. Expect a ton of early fireworks, little defense on our side, and a lot of cussing from the south end zone by the end of the third quarter. It'll be entertaining - until it isn't. Score: Cal 35, Nevada 21

Game 4: Nevada @ BYU
Not only do we rarely play BYU well, especially in Provo, but we'll be playing them a week after an emotionally draining game at home. Don't expect much. When we write our customary "Ault seriously needs to go after this travesty" article, be sure to point to this article. Score: BYU 42, Nevada 6

Game 5: Nevada @ UNLV
To quote Blazing Saddles, "We have to protect our phoney baloney jobs here, gentlemen! We must do something about this immediately! Immediately! Immediately! Harrumph! Harrumph! Harrumph!" Ault is admittedly fantastic at using games against UNLV to protect his job, and there doesn't appear to be any sign that this year will go down any differently. Score: Nevada 56, UNLV 21

Game 6: San Jose State vs. Nevada
San Jose State isn't very good and we'll be playing at home after a solid confidence boost against UNLV. This is where we try to set the tone for conference play. Score: Nevada 38, SJSU 17

Game 7: Nevada @ Hawaii
We never play well in Honolulu and Hawaii will probably be better than last year. Considering how we only beat them by 10 last year at home while they were on their third-string quarterback, don't be surprised if this seemingly winnable game runs away from us. Score: Hawaii 24, Nevada 14

Game 8: Utah State vs. Nevada
We have a bye week before this game, we're playing it at home, we'll probably be a little embarrassed about the Hawaii game, and did I mention that Utah State isn't very good? Yeah... Score: Nevada 61, Utah State 7

Game 9: Nevada @ Idaho
We're not going to lose this one, but it'll be much closer than people will be comfortable with. Idaho won't be sneaking up on anyone this year, so don't expect any miracles out of them; having said that, this game will be on the road and the Utah State game will probably convince our team that they're better than they really are. Score: Nevada 35, Idaho 31

Game 10: Nevada @ Fresno State
Fresno State's schedule is much more sane and reasonable this year than usual, which means they might actually be halfway healthy going into this game. This means there will be a pretty good chance that they might actually be in the hunt for the conference championship this year if Pat Hill stops sweating his contract and starts paying attention on the field again. We've played Fresno State exceptionally well over the past couple of years, even in Fresno, which actually worries me a bit. That said, Fresno follows us up with Boise, so, if we're really lucky, we might catch them looking ahead, especially if we stumble a little against Idaho beforehand. Score: Nevada 31, Fresno 28

Game 11: New Mexico State vs. Nevada
Now it's our turn to look ahead a little. Bear in mind that we absolutely throttled them last year and that was in Las Cruces; expect this year to be no different, especially at home. Score: Nevada 56, NMSU 10

Game 12: Boise State vs. Nevada
Ah... now, here's where things get interesting. We're playing them here, which is good. However, if we're not in the hunt for the conference championship going into this game, the crowd will be non-existent, especially with this game happening on Thanksgiving weekend. Meanwhile, Boise State has a realistic shot at the national championship if they can get past Virginia Tech and Oregon State. Assuming both teams are doing as well as they should be going into this game, expect both sides to bring their A game. Also expect Boise State's superior athleticism and their fans' willingness to travel to overcome any home field advantage we might have here. Score: Boise State 42, Nevada 35

Game 13: Nevada @ Louisiana Tech
If Louisiana Tech can figure out how to throw the ball by the time this game rolls around, we might be in trouble. Failing that, this won't be that interesting. Score: Nevada 38, Louisiana Tech 21

Record: 9-4 (8-4 vs. FBS schools, 2-1 out-of-conference)

Honestly, I'd love to see us make that jump to national prominence this year, and I think Kaep and our running game are going to be the best chances we have on that front. However, there are few signs that suggest our defense is improved enough over the past couple of years to pull that off, which means we're just not going to be able to get over the hump against teams like Cal and Boise State. Fortunately, our team did improve last year and played everyone close, so... who knows?

It's Not Over Yet

With Nevada and Fresno State heading to the Mountain West and the WAC gutted like a freshly caught trout, BYU has suddenly become rather quiet about their plans. Interestingly, they've gone quiet in both directions - they're not announcing that they're going independent, but they're also not announcing that they're staying in the MWC, either. So, which way are the tea leaves looking?

To gain some insight into this, let's recap from last week's post:

BYU: A lot of people think BYU will stand pat and stay in the MWC now that the WAC is crumbling, but there's no guarantee of that. BYU's position with The Mtn and BYU-TV haven't changed, and BYU is one of the few schools whose fans would benefit from regular trips to Hawaii (BYU has a satellite campus near Honolulu) and Utah State. Plus, BYU absolutely loathes the fact that Utah was able to get out of the MWC while BYU never got an invite. Also don't forget that BYU wasn't planning on affiliating with the WAC for football and, between Hawaii and Utah State, it's not like the WAC is shooting blanks on the men's basketball front.

Put another way, going to the WAC would definitely hurt BYU nationally, but there's a good chance that it might still help BYU with its natural constituency. Given a choice between some national popularity and what would amount to a Mormon athletic fan service on their own channel, don't be surprised if BYU goes against the grain on this one.

This brings me to an article from Saturday's Deseret News, New broadcast facility key to Y.'s TV dreams:

PROVO — It sits on a hill, its tall glass facade gleaming in the sunlight, a modern tower housing a state-of-the-art TV studio that rivals anything in the industry.

This 100,000-square-foot building, filled with enough soundproof walls to build another complete building, has a giant belly filled with complicated cables, wires, high-definition production wares and state-of-the art technology that feeds a modern TV studio.

Next to it is a sports studio. All of this can split off four BYU-TV broadcasts simultaneously and is rigged for digital media operations and Internet streaming. This tower of glass and mortar is hard-wired with video and audio HD capability direct to LaVell Edwards Stadium and the Marriott Center, reducing the need for one of those giant TV trucks.

And a truck? BYU owns the best HD production truck in the West.

This network, with its capabilities and instant access to DirecTV and Dish Network's basic platform and 200 cable companies in North America, is at the center of the national story that caught the attention of the college football world this past week.

Yet, few still have caught on.

And this isn't really a new story. It is a chapter in an ongoing saga.

Since the inception of the Mountain West Conference deal with Comcast and creation of the league's network, The mtn., in partnership with Versus and CBS C, BYU's administration has spoken frequently and loudly on how restrictive aspects of the deal were unacceptable.

Part of the complaint is freedom to retain some broadcast rights, while another part is replaying games on BYU's own systems. But nobody listened, until this week.

There is a huge difference between reaching 4 million households as opposed to an estimated 50 million in North America and another 60 million to 70 million in Spanish and Portuguese-speaking countries of South America and parts of Polynesia. That is what BYU's facilities can provide the school and its owner, The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, who'd love to couch sports with other programming.

The key detail to remember here is that, without the Salt Lake City market, there is no "The Mtn". We brought this up last week:

Look at the list of MWC markets, and consider the top three markets listed there. Dallas isn't a college sports town; even if they were, I suspect there are more University of Texas fans up there than there are fans for a small private school in nearby Fort Worth. Colorado State's position in Denver, meanwhile, is overshadowed by its significantly larger and more successful sibling in Boulder. San Diego is notoriously apathetic to sports in general and to college sports especially; of course, San Diego State hasn't gone out of its way to improve things. So, Salt Lake City is the largest TV market that the MWC serves where people actually care. In fact, if you work your way down the list, you'll quickly discover that Salt Lake City is the only TV market of appreciable size that consistently cares about MWC sports, which means Salt Lake City is the only market that doesn't just unwittingly subscribe to "The Mtn.", they actually watch it and, more importantly, advertise on it.

Utah's departure split that market in half.

Well, guess what? People in Utah know that. From the aforementioned Deseret News article:

The departure of Utah and possibly BYU would be a major blow to the MWC's network. Those two schools clearly have been the biggest audience draw, and when they play one another the rivalry sets records — the best numbers the league can produce. Larger population areas of San Diego, Las Vegas and Denver should pull big numbers for MWC network, but they just do not.

Numbers speak volumes.

The proposed MWC in 2013 has a current average attendance in football of just more than 28,000 per game in their respective stadiums. BYU draws just fewer than 65,000 on Saturdays. The actual TV differential draw may not be that dramatic, but it is a significant bump on Comcast's radar and they know it.

There is no evidence the Fresno, Calif., or Reno, Nev., markets would be any different than San Diego or Las Vegas — places where viewers, subscribers and commercial contracts have just not caught fire, although Fresno is in Comcast cable territory.

The past few years, The mtn. network has featured a lot of Utah-based advertising, like the travel interest to St. George and Mesquite. This year we'll see another Utah-based company start selling its office wares on the league network.

Where is Sea World? Where is Las Vegas and all its glimmer? Who is selling The mtn., anyway, and will we see that "To the Max" advertisement every break for another season?

Emphasis ours.

In short, "The Mtn." and the MWC need BYU far more than BYU needs either "The Mtn." or the MWC, and the WAC's semi-implosion hasn't changed that. That merely changed some of the options on the table for BYU. BYU still has its own channel, along with a far more successful distribution pattern than the MWC's channel. It has more than enough equipment to broadcast BYU sports. It's also the last tie to the only market "The Mtn." broadcasts to that actually generates any interest or profit, and no, bringing in Utah State won't fix that.

BYU has a little over a week to make its decision. Stay tuned.

So... What Just Happened?!

NOTE: This is a long post. You've been warned.

The RGJ, among several other sources, are reporting the Nevada and Fresno State are leaving the WAC for the Mountain West Conference. How did we get here? Now that the dust is starting to settle, let's see if we can piece everything together.

1. "The Mtn."

In 2006, the MWC and ESPN were in negotiations for another TV contract. ESPN was offering a contract similar to the one the WAC presently enjoys with ESPN, with high-profile MWC games broadcasted nationally on off-peak times, such as Wednesdays, Thursdays, Fridays, and Sundays. In exchange, the projected payout probably would have been higher than the $4 million per year that the WAC presently receives, but not by much.

The MWC in general - and BYU specifically - refused.

Due to BYU's prohibition against Sunday sporting activities of any sort, playing games on Sunday or playing games on days that would require a Sunday practice are forbidden (this, by the way, is a major reason why BYU will never end up in a major conference). Consequently, most of the flexibility in scheduling that ESPN was looking for was impossible, which would have lowered the resulting payout. On top of that, ESPN wasn't particularly interested in heavily promoting MWC men's basketball; this failed to impress most of the major players in the MWC, including Utah, BYU, and UNLV. Meanwhile, since ESPN was only interested in cherry-picking the top football games in the conference, schools like Wyoming, New Mexico and San Diego State would only gain a small paycheck from the deal with little additional exposure. Needless to say, ESPN's deal left a lot to be desired.

As undesirable as ESPN's deal was, something needed to replace it. Since nobody else was knocking on the door, the MWC decided to do something truly unprecedented - they started their own cable sports network. Now they could broadcast all the games they wanted whenever they wanted - this simplified scheduling considerably. They could give airtime to other MWC sports that ordinarily wouldn't merit much of it - women's volleyball, baseball, even college basketball. Best of all, they could keep all of the profit generated from their network. Of course, in order for this to work, people would not only have to be able to watch the network, they'd have to have a reason to. With help from Comcast and CBS College Sports Network, the MWC was able to distribute their sports network on most cable networks in MWC territory, along with DirectTV. In exchange, the MWC required all home games to be broadcast through this new network, even games that were traditionally broadcast by local TV providers.

The end result was a network that sacrificed national exposure in exchange for more money and increased local exposure in MWC markets - and MWC's media markets weren't particularly small. They included (population numbers from here):

Rank - Location - Population - Schools
5 - Dallas-Ft Worth, TX - 2,544,410 - TCU
16 - Denver, CO - 1,539,380 - Colorado State (technically in Ft. Collins, which is in Denver's media market)
28 - San Diego, CA - 1,073,390 - San Diego State
31 - Salt Lake City, UT - 944,640 - Utah, BYU
42 - Las Vegas, NV - 721,780 - UNLV
44 - Albuquerque-Santa Fe, NM - 694,040 - New Mexico
92 - Colorado Springs-Pueblo, CO - 334,710 - Air Force
197 - Cheyenne, WY-Scottsbluff, NE - 54,710 - Wyoming
Total Population: 7,907,060

To put this into perspective, let's compare to the WAC's media markets at the beginning of this year:
6 - San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, CA - 2,503,400 - San Jose State
31 - Salt Lake City, UT - 944,640 - Utah State
55 - Fresno-Visalia, CA - 579,180 - Fresno State
71 - Honolulu, HI - 433,240 - Hawaii
75 - Spokane, WA - 419,350 - Idaho (I'm not sure if Moscow is in Spokane's market, but this is as close as I could get.)
98 - El Paso, TX - 310,760 - New Mexico State (I'm not sure if Las Cruces is in El Paso's market or not, but it's the closest major city.)
108 - Reno, NV - 270,500 - Nevada
112 - Boise, ID - 262,800 - Boise State
138 - Monroe, LA-El Dorado, AR - 177,200 - Louisiana Tech (I'm not sure if Ruston is in Monroe's market or Shreveport's; technically, Ruston is closer to Monroe, so that's what I'm going with.)
Total Population: 5,901,070

Note that the WAC numbers are wildly optimistic since many of the WAC schools are in remote cities that are too small to be listed, such as Moscow and Ruston. Furthermore, I guarantee you there aren't nearly a million people in Utah that are excited about Utah State athletics, nor are there over two million people in the Bay Area that are transfixed by the athletic prowess of San Jose State.

(Of course, there aren't over two million people in Dallas-Fort Worth that religiously follow TCU sports, nor a million and a half in Denver nervously scanning Colorado State box scores, but I'm getting ahead of myself...)

For more information, check out this informative article on the MWC's TV situation in the Idaho Statesman.

2. Utah leaves the MWC for the Pac-10.

That Utah accepted the Pac-10 invite was not surprising. How that would affect the MWC, however, wasn't entirely obvious, and it wasn't just about what Utah's departure meant for the MWC's BCS probation. The bigger issue was that Utah's departure took half of Salt Lake City's TV market with them.

Why is that so important? Look at the list of MWC markets, and consider the top three markets listed there. Dallas isn't a college sports town; even if they were, I suspect there are more University of Texas fans up there than there are fans for a small private school in nearby Fort Worth. Colorado State's position in Denver, meanwhile, is overshadowed by its significantly larger and more successful sibling in Boulder. San Diego is notoriously apathetic to sports in general and to college sports especially; of course, San Diego State hasn't gone out of its way to improve things. So, Salt Lake City is the largest TV market that the MWC serves where people actually care. In fact, if you work your way down the list, you'll quickly discover that Salt Lake City is the only TV market of appreciable size that consistently cares about MWC sports, which means Salt Lake City is the only market that doesn't just unwittingly subscribe to "The Mtn.", they actually watch it and, more importantly, advertise on it.

Utah's departure split that market in half.

Suddenly, what was already a dicey TV strategy - cable distribution still hasn't been secured in Dallas-Fort Worth or in San Diego, and it took a couple of years before DirecTV distributed it as part of their sports tier - became completely untenable. Of course, for most of the schools in the MWC, it didn't matter how untenable "The Mtn." was - there weren't any other options.

For most, but not all...

3. BYU prepares its exit strategy.

Unlike the rest of the MWC, BYU has its own television station (BYU-TV). Unlike "The Mtn.", which is currently only available to roughly eight million subscribers in a fairly compact geographical region, BYU-TV is available to forty million subscribers across the country. Naturally, BYU would love nothing more than to be able to broadcast their games on BYU-TV and enjoy the increased exposure available. Failing that, BYU has never been particularly happy about "The Mtn." or its lackluster distribution; at one point, BYU and Utah hired an attorney to "explore possible alternatives". Consequently, finding a way to get back on to national television - any way at all, really - was a priority.

The WAC was more than happy to oblige.

Boise State's departure from the WAC wounded the conference, but it didn't kill it. Boise's media market isn't particularly large, even by WAC standards (Fresno, Honolulu and Reno serve the same role for the WAC that Salt Lake City served for the MWC), but losing the only nationally renown football program in the conference didn't make upcoming negotiations with ESPN any easier. BYU was more than happy to capitalize on the WAC's condition - in exchange for replacing Boise State as the nationally renown flagship of the conference, BYU would get to piggy-back on the WAC's more widely distributed TV package through ESPN. Provided BYU became an independent, the WAC would even look the other way while BYU leveraged their investment in BYU-TV into a profitable BYU-centered sports network. It looked like a win-win for everyone, and all BYU asked in return was a guarantee that the WAC would still be around when BYU pulled the trigger. That guarantee was made in the form of a $5 million buyout that all WAC schools were obligated to pay if they left this year.

It wasn't enough.

4. The Prisoner's Dilemma

In the post-Boise State WAC, there were only three schools that mattered - Fresno State, Nevada, and Hawaii. They commanded the three largest markets in the WAC that actually cared about them (sorry, San Jose State and Utah State) and they were the only three teams left that were consistently decent in football and men's basketball. Of those three, Hawaii was never going to leave - no other conference is interested in the inherent scheduling difficulties or travel expenses that regular trips to Hawaii bring on. This left Nevada and Fresno State in a classic prisoner's dilemma. If they both stayed in the WAC, they had a decent chance of making the conference work for them, especially since BYU wouldn't be contending for a conference championship. If either of them left, however, not only would BYU reconsider its position, the remaining school would have to contend with maintaining national relevance while playing a conference that would only be slightly tougher (and slightly more interesting) than the Sun Belt.

The MWC called both of the "prisoners" in. As so often happens in a prisoner's dilemma situation, both prisoners caved. They didn't really have a choice.

So here we are. What now?

BYU: A lot of people think BYU will stand pat and stay in the MWC now that the WAC is crumbling, but there's no guarantee of that. BYU's position with The Mtn and BYU-TV haven't changed, and BYU is one of the few schools whose fans would benefit from regular trips to Hawaii (BYU has a satellite campus near Honolulu) and Utah State. Plus, BYU absolutely loathes the fact that Utah was able to get out of the MWC while BYU never got an invite. Also don't forget that BYU wasn't planning on affiliating with the WAC for football and, between Hawaii and Utah State, it's not like the WAC is shooting blanks on the men's basketball front.

Put another way, going to the WAC would definitely hurt BYU nationally, but there's a good chance that it might still help BYU with its natural constituency. Given a choice between some national popularity and what would amount to a Mormon athletic fan service on their own channel, don't be surprised if BYU goes against the grain on this one.

The WAC: A lot of people are also thinking the WAC will disappear. After a bit of thought, I'm not one of them for one reason and one reason only - where else are these schools going to go?

Of the remainder, New Mexico State and Louisiana Tech are in the best position geographically to leave; however, I doubt either would leave the WAC for the Sun Belt, so they would need Conference USA to decide to expand to fourteen teams. Considering how C-USA already has a presence in El Paso (UTEP) and Louisiana Tech doesn't really bring much to the table, I doubt they'd bother. As for the rest, they're too far west to be logistically worthwhile for other mid-major to consider. In my mind, the only way the WAC is completely dissolving is if either an FCS conference like the Big Sky or the WCC decides to pursue FBS-level football wholesale, or if the teams in the WAC mutually decide to drop down to the FCS. I don't see either situation happening right now.

That's not to say the conference isn't in trouble, though. Outside of the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl, the WAC doesn't have many built in bowl opportunities anymore. There also isn't a TV-friendly football team left in the conference, though at least Utah State and Hawaii are respectable in college basketball. Meanwhile, the financial difficulties inherent in a conference that requires teams to travel to Ruston and Honolulu every other year certainly didn't get any easier.

If the WAC is going to survive long-term, it really needs to rationalize its geography somehow. That might mean expanding to twelve teams, soaking up as many of the UT-San Antonios and UC Davises of the world as they can so there would be two geographically sensible divisions. It might mean politely asking Louisiana Tech and New Mexico State to find other opportunities while doubling down on the likes of Montana and UC Davis. No matter how the problem is resolved, it needs to be resolved sooner than later.

One thing is certain, though - the WAC isn't going anywhere anytime soon. There's $5-10 million on the table for the conference calling itself the "Western Athletic Conference". As long as that's the case, there will be a conference there ready, willing, and able to collect that.

MWC: If BYU does stick around, the MWC will remain in excellent shape. Between Boise State, BYU, and TCU, there's enough success on the gridiron to ensure that the MWC makes it through its BCS probation. Meanwhile, Fresno, Boise and Reno will make up for the loss of half of the MWC's strongest media market.

Without BYU, though, things get murkier. At the very least, the MWC's bid for a permanent table with the BCS will be damaged; unless they're able to poach a moderately successful school from one of the other conferences (Houston?), it's going to be an uphill climb. On the TV front, it would probably spell the end of "The Mtn" - there just isn't enough interest (or size) from the rest of the conference's markets to justify its continued existence.

Nevada and Fresno State: Even if BYU leaves, the remainder of the MWC will still be a stronger football conference than the WAC was. Plus, both schools finally got Ruston and Honolulu off their travel dockets, which will save a considerable amount of time, money and effort. That said, the remainder of the MWC might be a slight downgrade in men's basketball - though UNLV is getting better, it still doesn't quite measure up to Utah State. Fortunately, Colorado State, TCU and San Diego State have been improving lately, so that might carry forward for a few years, and the worst of the MWC isn't anywhere near as bad as San Jose State or Idaho. Coach Carter is excited, if nothing else, so that bodes well; I think Gary Powers is still bitter that his team left the baseball-happy Big West.

Ultimately, if BYU stays with the MWC, the move was a very positive step forward for both Nevada and Fresno State. If they don't, it's still a net gain, albeit more of a marginal one.

These are my thoughts on the subject. If you haven't already, check out Dan Hinxman's excellent coverage on the RGJ, including excerpts of what other media sources are saying.

If you have anything to add, feel free to do so!

RG-J reports that sources report Ault's job to be in jeopardy

The Reno Gazette-Journal reported in their paper this morning that "multiple sources" have contacted the paper's offices in the past two weeks with the same general message: the Wolf Pack must compete for a Western Athletic Conference championship and not embarass themselves (and their ancestors, in my opinion) in a bowl game next season, lest Ault cash in his 401(k), buy a 'Bago, and move to Tampa.

Rather than shrug off the comments, Cary Groth and Coach Ault were both quick to go on the defensive, which really serves to re-affirm what we've already said: Ault is on probation.

Between their actions three weeks ago, the sheer number of people within the department willing to divulge such similar stories, and their swift and deliberate reactions this time around I think we can all be pretty certain of that fact.

But before we all get out the celebratory box of Cheese-Its, there are some things to consider.

Among the assertions by donors is that Groth has been trying to "get rid of" Ault since she arrived in 2004 and that Ault offered to step down during their meeting last month.

Groth did re-up Ault's contract, as she was quick to point out, in 2007 after a 6-7 season and Nevada's first shut-out loss since the Carter administration; if she ever had a golden opportunity to uload the guy, that was it.  Therefore, I'm inclined to believe her when she says refutes that above statement.  She is the AD, afterall, and therefore does wield the power to deal with him; either that or she really is shackled to a radiator while the team is shackled to a corpse, but the only way for that to be possible would be if she were answering to the greater wishes of the donors...the same donors who have been flooding Groth with complaints about Ault and reporting the "firestorm up there" to the RG-J.

The potential triggers outlined by the donors -- contend for a WAC title and avoid embarrassment in a bowl game -- are ambiguously defined at best, but they are indicators that the vocal faction of Ault detractors -- a few hundred of whom e-mailed Groth to complain following the bowl loss -- might be having an influence on the potential direction of the program.

They are ambiguous to a point, but the fact that contend for a title and avoid embarrassment in a bowl game is the only demarcation defining the future of Ault's employment indicates to me that the University is taking the 'just don't look like a chode again' approach in order to shelter him from disgrace; it also gives enough room for interpretation to allow them to cast him off next season - it therefore becomes further evidence of Ault's probation.

And I don't think the donors' complaints are having that kind of impact, mainly because they don't have to; 45-10 against SM freakin' U pretty much speaks for itself.

The most important to consider, however:

...Nevada has underperformed in non-conference games since Ault's return -- 12-16 overall, which includes a 5-1 record against UNLV and a 1-4 mark in bowl games.

Remove the record against UNLV, one of the worst FBS programs in the country in the last decade, and Nevada is 7-15 in non-conference games. The Wolf Pack has adopted a more challenging non-conference scheduling philosophy in the last decade or so, and the Pack did not play an FCS opponent in 2009. But its inability to compete with Top-25 caliber teams has alienated some fans. The Pack is 1-11 against Top 25 teams since 2004, including 0-10 in the last four seasons.

 The evidence is mounting...not that we need it anymore.

There's no shame in abdication...

Laugh of the Week

I check into the list of signatures on the Fire Chris Ault online petition periodically, and am pleased to report that it is now up to 26 signatures.  One of them, however, is something of a freebie.

#20
Name: You Are An Idiot on Jan 28, 2010
Comments: You are probably a disgruntled postal worker and nobody likes you. How many games did you even attend?? Coach needs support not your whining.

So, someone actually signed the petition in an attempt to tell a previous signer what he thought of him/her.

"You Are An Idiot," huh; well, I guess it takes one to know one.  And that, friends, is firechrisault.com's Laugh of the Week.

UPDATE! January 30, 2010: 'Idiot' removed his signature from the petition; unfortunate but still funny.

The NEW Fire Chris Ault Online Petition

The online petition is back (and the link has been tested), so I am posting it again:

http://www.ipetitions.com/petition/firechrisault/

Thanks to our astute readership identifying when this link blinked out the last time.

But now it's back, long may it reign.

Sunset over Seven Lakes Mountain