Not Quite As Topical As It Was Two Months Ago

Bronco Nation says we're "not quite as topical as [we were] two months ago". Frankly, I have to agree. To Ault's credit, the Wolf Pack has really come alive over the past month and a half. The question on our minds, however, is this:

Is it because our team is that good, or is it because the WAC is that bad?

The answer to that question, of course, is YES. Our team is getting better. The offense is playing to our personnel strengths by focusing on the running game, which is a development I already spoke in favor of not too long ago. On the other hand, outside of us, Fresno State and Boise State, the WAC is bad. How bad? According to Sagarin's latest computer rankings, the WAC is ranked behind the Mountain West and ahead of Conference USA. This doesn't sound too bad until you remember that Boise State tilts the average substantially in the WAC's favor.

To help drive the point home, here are the team-by-team rankings for us, Conference USA, and the MAC:

Western Athletic Conference
8 Boise State
52 Fresno State
56 Nevada
78 Idaho
89 Louisiana Tech
109 Hawaii
110 Utah State
137 San Jose State
157 New Mexico State

Conference USA
41 Houston
54 East Carolina
62 Central Florida
65 Southern Miss
72 Marshall
80 SMU
96 UAB
97 Tulsa
125 UTEP
129 Memphis
140 Rice
141 Tulane

Mid-American Conference
45 Central Michigan
58 Temple
83 Ohio University
85 Bowling Green
87 Northern Illinois
107 Buffalo
112 Kent State
114 Western Michigan
116 Toledo
132 Akron
146 Miami-Ohio
164 Ball State
184 Eastern Michigan

Look at the numbers for a second. If you take Boise State out of the equation, our Sagarin ranking drops from 65.78 down to 63.84, which puts us several points below Conference USA (65.21) and just above the MAC (61.19). In other words, Nevada has been chewing up yardage and securing several NCAA rushing records against one of the weakest conferences in college football.

That said, we have been chewing up yardage. If we were as bad as the rest of the conference, we wouldn't be blowing them out 52-14 or 63-20. If our defense wasn't improving, we wouldn't have kept our opponents under 21 points in each game in November. Folks, yes, this team is putting up impressive scores against some truly awful teams, but they are putting up impressive scores. You don't do that unless you're actually halfway decent.

So, how do I think we'll do against Boise State? Good question, and it's one that's keeping some Bronco fans up at night, too. Boise State is, in many respects, in the same position we're in, only without the ugly non-conference losses that we suffered. Are they any good? Are we? Nobody really knows because neither team has played anyone that couldn't pass for a Sun Belt team in months. I mean, Buffalo would help either of our team's strengths of schedule more than the bottom third of the WAC. Think about that for a minute.

Personally, I think this game will be close. Ault fired Tormey so many years ago because Tormey's Pack didn't perform against Boise State; consequently, Ault has made it his personal mission to prove that, unlike Tormey, his teams won't quit when facing the Broncos. This approach has paid off pretty well - the past two Nevada-Boise State games were rather close, with Kaepernick's coming out party occurring in Boise in quadruple-overtime two years ago. That said, I think this game is going to provide somebody with a reality check. Since this is FireChrisAult.com, and since Boise State is not afraid to throw the ball, guess who I think will receive it?

Boise State 49, Nevada 35