Nevada vs. Idaho - A FCA Preview

There are two things you should know about the WAC this year:

1. Fresno State isn't as bad as their record might indicate.
2. Idaho isn't as good as their record might indicate.

Idaho is currently 6-1 and staring at the face of bowl eligibility for the first time in years. Personally, I think it's a great story. Like Pat Forde at ESPN, I'm mildly intrigued by the idea of a late-season WAC showdown getting national exposure:

The Coach (4) of the half-year is:

[...]

C. Robb Akey, Idaho. The Vandals were 3-21 the previous two years. Now they're 6-1, off to their best start since their days as an FCS program and eyeing their first bowl bid since 1998. They're keeping alive the impossible dream: "GameDay" in Boise on Nov. 14 for Idaho-Boise State?

Dash answer, in a close one: C.

Unfortunately, in order for such an unlikely event to occur, Idaho would have to win this weekend in Mackay Stadium. Sadly, there are some things a Wolf Pack fan simply cannot abide, and losing to the Vandals at home is on that list. The dream must die here.

Fortunately, it just might.

The good news about Idaho's record, at least from an opponent's perspective, is that it's not particularly revealing. Idaho had a rough loss at Washington, beat a mediocre Northern Illinois team a week after the Huskies beat Purdue (NOTE: This means the Vandals are 1-1 against Huskies!), and beat Colorado State in Moscow (NOTE: This means the Vandals are 2-1 against anthropomorphic mammalian mascots!). Granted, they beat Colorado State when we didn't, but we didn't play them in Reno, either. Point being, they've largely played mediocre teams - that they're actually winning against them is rather impressive in the grand scheme of Vandal football, but there's no reason to get too excited.

That said, Idaho does do some things right that should strike some fear in Wolf Pack fans. First off, unlike us, they can pass. Speaking of which, Pat Forde pays attention to us, too:

The Annoyance (32) of the half-year:

A. Teams that only run from the pistol formation and never pass.

B. The inability of so much of the nation to correctly spell the surname of Boise State coach Chris Petersen. Yeah, with an "e."

C. The haphazard (at best) application of the excessive celebration/taunting rule.

Dash answer: B.

Guess who runs the pistol formation but rarely passes these days? Just be thankful our play selection is less annoying than people misspelling Chris Petersen's name. While we're on the subject, guess who's weak against the pass?

*gulp*

To make matters worse, Idaho can also run the ball - they're averaging over 160 yards per game on the ground. Though our run defense is fairly solid - we're only giving up 117 yards per game on the ground - it would be nice if Idaho's offense was a little more one-dimensional so our defense could more easily prepare against it. Worst of all, Idaho actually holds on to the ball, though Nathan Enderle has been known to throw the ball to the other team from time to time.

On the defensive side of the ball, things aren't much more encouraging. Idaho has allowed less than 100 yards rushing per game in most of its games; even Washington only pulled in 121 yards on 3.7 yards per rush. Colorado State did achieve some success on the ground against Idaho, though, averaging 4.3 yards per rush and restricting Idaho to only 2.1 yards per rush, which is encouraging - it shows that Idaho's rushing offense can be stopped and that a quality run game can run against the Vandal defense.

So, how will we do?

We're playing at home on a Saturday, which means we'll actually have a few people show up - this is more than can be said about the Louisiana Tech game. Idaho's offense is fairly potent through the air, so our secondary is going to have some issues there. On the other hand, Idaho's defense looks like it might be moderately susceptible to our run-based attack. Personally, I'm thinking a close, high-scoring game, with a couple of untimely turnovers on our side keeping Idaho in it.

Nevada 35, Idaho 31