We Are Who We Thought We Were!

Lies, damn lies, and statistics... yeah, we've been hitting the Excel sheets a little hard over here. Let's mix it up a bit, shall we?

What have we learned up to this point of the season?

1. We can run the ball but we can't really pass effectively.
2. We can defend the run but we can't defend the pass effectively.

The second point isn't a big surprise - we've had issues defending the pass since UNR first played football in 18-aught-3 against Mormon missionaries and confused Paiutes. I still personally think that we're making some progress on that front, though I'll freely concede that the numbers aren't showing it; just from an eyeball test, it's clear we're certainly more aggressive with pass coverage than we were in the pre-Nigel Burton era, which I think will pay dividends in a couple of seasons. Some of you may disagree with me on that, though, and I respect that.

The first point, however, is a big issue, and one that I'm going to spend a bit of time on today. I completely understand why we're using a run-first offense this year - we have a ton of depth in the running back position, our quarterback is mobile, and our offensive line is pretty decent at run protection. There are, however, a couple of concerns that are tickling the back of my mind this season:

1. Kaepernick is regressing. He's making poor decisions when throwing the football, decisions that he didn't used to make. I'm not sure how much of this is due to our inexperienced receiving corps, but some of this has to lie at his feet.
2. It's very difficult to beat teams you shouldn't with a run-first offense.

Why did Idaho beat Colorado State, and why couldn't we? Why did we get blown out against Notre Dame? Why did we lose against Missouri at home? Part of the problem, of course, was ball control - we weren't. Part of the problem, though, is that, when all you can do effectively is run the ball, it's much harder to find that one match-up that you can use to beat an otherwise superior opponent. When you're passing the ball, you need your quarterback to be a bit better than the rest of the defense, you need your receiver to be a bit better than the secondary, and you need the rest of your offense to be just good enough to not be a liability against the rest of the defense. That's it. You just need two players to be better than the opposition, and the remaining nine to be good enough to keep the game plan from falling apart entirely. Best of all, the offense has the initiative - the defense has to react to what the offense is doing at any given moment. When you're passing the ball, you're forcing the defense to either cover the entire field (Are you throwing short? Long?) or to pressure the quarterback into making a poor decision, which leaves the defense open to screen passes. A reasonably well executed pass attack is like a gun - it equalizes. That's not to say that somebody with no experience with guns can point one at a Special Forces veteran and effectively defend themselves, nor can UNLV go pass-first against Florida's defense, but it does make the odds a bit more even than they would be otherwise.

A run-first, offense, however, is generally much easier to defend. You need your offensive line to be bigger and faster than the opposing defensive line - if it's not, it doesn't matter how good your running backs are. We learned that against Notre Dame. That means you need a minimum of five players to be better than the 3-? players the opposing defense is throwing their way. Oh, you'll also want your running back to be a bit faster than the rest of the defense, so that brings us up to six players. It's much, much harder for a WAC team to find six players that can stand toe-to-toe against a superior non-conference foe, much less find six players that are actually superior. Plus, when you're a run-first offense, it's pretty easy for the defense to figure out where the ball is coming from and where it's going to go.

Usually.

The one exception, of course, is the infamous triple-option. It works by spreading the field out the only way a run-first offense can - horizontally. A well-run triple option can force the defense to spread out and cover the entire width of the football field by using misdirection and variable runner assignment. Do you cover one of the two running backs? Do you cover the quarterback? What if the quarterback, in a rare moment of pique, actually throws the ball? Even with a triple-option, though, you still need at least three players that are faster than the opposing defense (both running backs and the quarterback), an offensive line that's good enough to hold the play long enough for it to develop, and commitment to the triple-option at the program level so you're not just running the same three plays over and over again (student body left, student body right, up the middle).

The good news, at least for us, is that the talent differential between us and the rest of the WAC is generally favorable, especially when it comes to offense vs. defense. Defense is notoriously difficult to recruit for anyway, and our recruiting on offense puts us in the top third of the conference. Consequently, the only teams we'll have serious issues running against will be Boise State and possibly Fresno State - Idaho won't defeat us with superior defense, that much I'm certain of. So, expect plenty more multiple 100+ yard rushers and plenty of points from our offense while our defense gives up roughly 30 points a game. The bad news, unfortunately, is that we're going to have a hell of a time beating anybody we shouldn't if we can't find some way to keep superior defenses off-balance, which means either executing a well-tuned triple option (it's harder than it looks) and/or figuring out how to pass the ball.

Wolf Pack football! Feel the excitement!